不同定价机制对我国铁矿石贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 16:02

本文关键词：不同定价机制对我国铁矿石贸易的影响研究　出处：《华东政法大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国既是世界第一钢铁生产大国,也是世界第一铁矿石进口大国。中国铁矿石储量虽然庞大,但是中国国内铁矿石资源贫矿较多,且存在开采技术差、选矿难度大、生产效率不高等问题。受铁矿石资源属性和开采难度的限制,国内铁矿石产量难以满足钢铁生产的需求,可利用数量和人均数量远远不能满足国内庞大的钢铁产能对原料的超级需求,使中国钢企不得不寻求进口之路。过去几十年,由于铁矿石进口国的绝大部分进口量都是从澳大利亚、巴西等铁矿石丰产国获得,铁矿石贸易在长协价机制下,由于卖方对铁矿石资源的绝对垄断,在谈判中卖方的讨价还价的能力相对较强,定价权始终掌握在几大铁矿石垄断出口商手中。虽然从2004年开始,中国派出宝钢、中钢协等大型钢厂及机构参加长协价格谈判,但在价格谈判方面没有任何讨价还价的余地,依旧被动接受铁矿石价格飙升的结果。随着铁矿石市场进行灵活定价时代,定价以指数为基准,定价区间和定价模式灵活多变,价格以现货市场为主导,越来越多的金融因素也加入其中。各种价格指数、交易平台和铁矿石金融衍生品的产生,使得铁矿石市场影响因素越来越复杂,市场价格波动性极大,中国拥有最大的铁矿石现货市场,在新一轮的机制变革下,紧跟脚步,也推出了自己的指数、交易平台和期货等,试图在铁矿石市场中改善被动的地位。新定价机制地产生使铁矿石市场发生了巨大变化,因此研究不同定价机制对铁矿石贸易市场的影响,价格机制转变的原因,对于改善我国铁矿石贸易和钢铁产业的发展有着至关重要的意义。本论文试图从铁矿石市场发展过程中出现的两种定价机制入手,分析对比不同定价机制给我国铁矿石贸易带来的不同影响,探究其机制转变的实质。从微观经济学的角度看,铁矿石市场属于寡头垄断市场,因此采用垄断市场模型从理论上分析市场定价及定价机制转变的原因。对于不同定价机制的影响研究,在实证方面首先采用格兰杰因果检验法对两种定价机制对于进口量变化的影响进行验证对比,再采用动态比价法对于不同定价机制对定价权的影响进行验证对比。分析结果表明,在灵活定价机制下,我国铁矿石贸易买方地位有所提高,贸易状况得到一定改善,定价模式的改变对我国而言具有正向影响。根据以上分析进而提出关于对我国铁矿石贸易改善切实可行、富有针对性的措施,希望对我国铁矿石贸易和经济的健康发展有所帮助。应对策略包括顺应铁矿石价格金融化的趋势,完善并加强现有的金融体系和产品,并推出更多相关的金融化产品,以图在未来金融化的铁矿石市场方面占据更多的份额。制定国家保障战略,大力扶持国产矿开发,优化产业布局,提升国产矿产量,实现矿钢平衡发展。
[Abstract]:China is not only the world's largest iron and steel producer, but also the world's largest iron ore importer. Although China's iron ore reserves are huge, China's domestic iron ore resources are poor, and there is poor mining technology. Due to the limitation of iron ore resource attribute and mining difficulty, domestic iron ore production is difficult to meet the demand of iron and steel production. The quantity available and the amount per capita are far from meeting the huge domestic demand for raw materials, forcing Chinese steelmakers to seek ways to import. Because the vast majority of imports of iron ore importing countries are from Australia, Brazil and other high-yielding countries, iron ore trade in the long price mechanism, due to the seller's absolute monopoly on iron ore resources. The seller's bargaining power was relatively strong in the negotiations, with pricing power always in the hands of several major iron ore monopoly exporters, although China has sent Baosteel since 2004. Sinosteel Association and other large steel mills and institutions to participate in the long Association price negotiations, but in the price negotiations there is no bargaining room. As the iron ore market carries on the flexible pricing era, pricing is based on index, pricing range and pricing model is flexible, and the price is dominated by the spot market. Various price indices, trading platforms and iron ore financial derivatives, which make the iron ore market more and more complex factors, market price volatility. China, which has the largest spot iron ore market, has followed suit in a new round of institutional changes, launching its own indices, trading platforms and futures. This paper attempts to improve the passive position in the iron ore market. The new pricing mechanism has brought about great changes in the iron ore market, so the influence of different pricing mechanisms on the iron ore trading market has been studied. The reason of the change of price mechanism is very important to improve the iron ore trade and the development of iron and steel industry in China. This paper tries to start with the two pricing mechanisms in the process of the development of iron ore market. This paper analyzes and compares the different effects of different pricing mechanisms on China's iron ore trade, and probes into the essence of its mechanism transformation. From the microeconomic point of view, the iron ore market belongs to the oligopoly market. Therefore, the monopolistic market model is used to analyze theoretically the reasons of market pricing and the change of pricing mechanism. The influence of different pricing mechanisms is studied. In the empirical aspect, Granger causality test is first used to verify the impact of the two pricing mechanisms on the change of import volume. Then the influence of different pricing mechanisms on pricing power is verified and compared by using dynamic pricing method. The results show that the buyer status of iron ore trade in China has been improved under the flexible pricing mechanism. The trade situation has been improved, and the change of pricing mode has a positive impact on China. Based on the above analysis, the paper puts forward practical and targeted measures to improve China's iron ore trade. The countermeasures include adapting to the trend of iron ore price financialization, perfecting and strengthening the existing financial system and products. And the introduction of more related financial products, in order to finance the iron ore market in the future to occupy a greater share, formulate national security strategy, vigorously support the development of domestic mines, optimize the industrial layout. Increase the production of domestic ore, achieve balanced development of ore steel.
【学位授予单位】：华东政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.1;F752.7

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