火力发电企业基建项目风险管理及其智能管理系统研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 10:56

本文关键词： 火力发电风险管理基建项目信息系统　出处：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球节能减排的背景下,电力作为一种最重要的、不可或缺的清洁能源,需求量极速上升。发电企业是电力生产的源头,在整个电力市场的运营过程中占据了非常重要的位置。然而,火力发电企业基建项目面临着复杂的内外部环境以及本身具有投资大、建设周期长等特点,使其在实际项目运营中存在大量的风险,因此,火力发电企业基建项目风险管理显得尤为重要。本文立足于火力发电企业基建单位,根据风险管理中全面管理的思想精髓以及风险识别-风险评估-风险预警的管理流程,开展了发电企业基建项目风险管理及其信息系统的研究,主要包括：在对基建项目风险管理的概念进行分析的基础上,分别从风险管理目标体系、风险管理流程体系和风险管理方法体系这三个维度,提出火力发电企业基建项目风险管理三维框架模型；基于电网基建项目风险管理的核心目标,从基建项目生命周期中投资决策、项目准备、项目建设、验收投产四个阶段出发,通过项目工作分解对项目中存在的风险进行分析,构建风险识别体系；在风险识别的基础上,考虑到实际风险评估过程有效性问题和专家权重确定难题,融入了专家群评价的方法和兼顾专家主客观权重信息给专家赋权的方法,进而结合离差最大化思想和Choquet模糊积分算法,构建基于模糊积分-离差最大化的火力发电企业基建项目风险评估模型；在风险管理理论基础上,提出了基于全过程、全部、全方位、全面组织四个维度的火力发电企业基建项目全面风险预警模型,并对项目风险应对措施进行研究；在基于火力发电企业基建项目风险管理中风险识别-风险分析-风险评估-风险监控-风险应对-风险识别的循环上升管理流程,分析风险预警智能管理系统的需求,对风险预警智能管理系统平台的功能进行总体设计和详细设计,构建了火力发电企业基建项目风险智能管理系统平台。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global energy saving and emission reduction, electricity is one of the most important and indispensable clean energy, and the demand is rising rapidly. Power generation enterprises are the source of electricity production. In the whole electricity market operation process occupied a very important position. However thermal power enterprise infrastructure projects are faced with complex internal and external environment and have the characteristics of large investment and long construction cycle. It has a large number of risks in the actual project operation, therefore, the risk management of thermal power enterprise capital construction project is particularly important. This paper is based on the thermal power enterprise infrastructure unit. According to the essence of overall management in risk management and the management process of risk identification, risk assessment and risk warning, the research on risk management and information system of power generation enterprise capital construction project is carried out. Mainly includes: on the basis of the analysis of the concept of risk management of capital construction projects, from the risk management target system, risk management process system and risk management method system of the three dimensions. This paper presents a three-dimensional framework model for risk management of capital construction projects in thermal power plants. Based on the core goal of risk management of power grid infrastructure project, this paper starts from four stages: investment decision, project preparation, project construction, acceptance and commissioning in the life cycle of infrastructure project. The risk identification system is constructed by analyzing the risk in the project by decomposing the work of the project. On the basis of risk identification, considering the effectiveness of the actual risk assessment process and the difficult problem of expert weight determination, the method of expert group evaluation and the method of giving weight to experts with subjective and objective weight information are included. Then, combining the idea of deviation maximization and Choquet fuzzy integral algorithm, the risk assessment model of thermal power enterprise infrastructure project based on fuzzy integral-deviation maximization is constructed. Based on the theory of risk management, the paper puts forward a comprehensive risk early warning model of capital construction projects of thermal power enterprises based on the whole process, all aspects, all directions and overall organization, and studies the measures to deal with the project risks. Based on the risk management of thermal power enterprise infrastructure project risk identification-risk analysis-risk assessment-risk monitoring-risk response-risk identification cycle rising management process. This paper analyzes the demand of risk early warning intelligent management system, designs the function of risk early warning intelligent management system platform, and constructs the risk intelligent management system platform of thermal power enterprise capital construction project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F270.7;F272.3;F426.61

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