煤矿生产物流系统安全影响因素敏感性问题研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 04:26

本文关键词： 煤矿生产物流系统系统动力学粗糙集敏感性分析　出处：《郑州大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤炭资源为我国国民经济的快速发展和居民生活水平的提高提供了能源保障,主导着我国一次能源消耗。然而,特殊的煤层储存现状和地理因素决定了我国煤矿生产条件的恶劣性与危险性。现阶段,一方面我国煤炭资源的开采受地理因素、水文环境影响较大,整体上较依赖于自然因素;另一方面,煤矿生产物流系统本身的结构具有复杂性、庞大性及不可预测性,且各个子系统相互交叉作用,呈现多层次关系。由此造成了煤矿生产行业安全事故频发,矿难事故不仅危及矿工的生命安全和家庭幸福,也对整个社会经济发展带来了巨大的影响。因此,考虑影响煤矿生产物流系统的安全因素及其动态性和复杂性等特点,如何从众多影响因素中筛选出关键因素,并探索各关键因素对煤矿安全生产系统的作用大小,是各个煤矿生产企业十分关注的问题。基于煤矿生产安全能力提升的需求和矿难不断发生的严峻形势,本文提出利用粗糙集和系统动力学方法来对煤矿生产物流系统安全影响因素进行敏感性分析。主要研究内容如下:(1)以某省Y煤业集团下属8个煤矿为主要研究对象,收集整理煤矿生产物流系统相关影响因素对系统安全作用的历史数据,结合煤矿生产物流系统本身的动态性和复杂性,利用系统分析方法从人员、机器、设备、管理、应急措施等方面识别影响煤矿生产物流系统安全的各类因素,并建立系统安全影响因素指标体系。(2)煤矿生产物流系统安全关键影响因素识别。在获取影响系统安全状态的各类因素的基础上,收集煤矿生产物流系统各类影响因素及安全生产状况对应的样本数据,并对各类影响因素进行因果关系分析,采用粗糙集方法从人员因素、机器设备因素、环境因素、管理因素、应急救援能力因素等影响因素中筛选出影响煤矿生产物流系统安全的关键影响因素。(3)煤矿生产物流系统安全水平的系统动力学建模及关键因素敏感性分析。在识别出关键影响因素的基础上,搜集整理并分析煤矿生产物流系统的正常运行与事故异常状态的原始数据,形成关键影响因素与系统安全状态的样本数据集。利用系统动力学方法建立了反映各关键影响因素与系统安全状态关系的敏感度分析模型,并结合煤炭生产企业的实际数据进行实证研究,获取了煤矿生产物流系统中各关键影响因素对系统安全水平的敏感度分析结果,有助于煤炭生产企业作出有效的安全管理决策。本文研究结果表明,各关键因素对煤矿生产物流安全的影响程度不完全相同。识别出对煤矿安全影响较大的因素,并采取措施有针对性地对其进行改良,一方面为煤矿安全生产提出了有用的决策建议,另一方面对实现煤矿安全生产的管理与资源分配具有一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Coal resources provide energy security for the rapid development of our national economy and the improvement of the living standard of the residents, which dominates the primary energy consumption in our country. Special coal seam storage status and geographical factors determine the bad and dangerous coal production conditions in China. At present, the exploitation of coal resources in China is influenced by geographical factors, hydrological environment, and depends on natural factors as a whole. On the other hand, the structure of the coal mine production logistics system is complex, huge and unpredictable, and each subsystem interacts with each other, showing a multi-level relationship, which results in the frequent occurrence of safety accidents in the coal mine production industry. Mine accidents not only endanger the lives of miners and the happiness of their families, but also have a great impact on the development of the whole society and economy. Therefore, considering the characteristics of the safety factors affecting the production and logistics system of coal mines and their dynamics and complexity, How to screen out the key factors from many influencing factors and explore the effect of each key factor on the coal mine safety production system, Because of the need to improve the production safety ability of coal mines and the severe situation of the continuous occurrence of mine accidents, In this paper, rough set and system dynamics methods are used to analyze the sensitivity of the factors affecting the safety of coal production logistics system. The main contents of this study are as follows: (1) eight coal mines belonging to the Y Coal Industry Group of a province are taken as the main research objects. Collecting and sorting the historical data of the influence factors of the coal mine production logistics system on the system safety, combining the dynamic and complexity of the coal mine production logistics system, using the system analysis method from the personnel, machinery, equipment, management, Identifying the various factors that affect the safety of coal mine production logistics system in terms of emergency measures, And establish the index system of system safety influencing factors. 2) identify the key factors affecting the safety of coal mine production logistics system. On the basis of obtaining all kinds of factors that affect the safety state of the system, Collect the sample data of all kinds of influencing factors and safety production condition of coal mine production logistics system, and carry on causality analysis to all kinds of influence factors, adopt rough set method to analyze from personnel factor, machine equipment factor, environment factor, Management factors, The key factors influencing the safety of coal mine production logistics system are screened out, such as the factors of emergency rescue ability, etc.) the system dynamic modeling of the safety level of coal mine production logistics system and the sensitivity analysis of key factors are analyzed. On the basis of the key factors, Collect and analyze the raw data of normal operation and accident abnormal state of coal mine production logistics system, A sample data set of key influencing factors and system security state is formed. A sensitivity analysis model reflecting the relationship between the key factors and the security state of the system is established by using the system dynamics method. Combining with the actual data of coal production enterprises, the sensitivity analysis results of the key influencing factors to the system safety level in the coal production logistics system are obtained. It is helpful for coal production enterprises to make effective safety management decisions. The results of this paper show that the influence of key factors on the safety of coal production logistics is not the same, and the factors that have great influence on coal mine safety are identified. On the one hand, it puts forward some useful decision suggestions for coal mine safety production, on the other hand, it has certain practical significance to realize the management and resource allocation of coal mine safety production.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.21;F252

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