多目标情景下中国非常规油气开发技术学习率的估计——基于学习曲线理论

发布时间：2018-03-17 17:43

本文选题：非常规油气　切入点：技术学习率　出处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以页岩气开发技术应用为代表,通过多目标情景设定,探索性分析中国非常规油气开发领域在技术能力获得的不同发展路径下技术学习率的大小。基于此目标,应用学习曲线理论,以技术发展不同阶段的特征设定技术发展路径,构建单因素学习曲线参数模型,估计非常规油气技术应用在"生产能力积累"与"技术创新突破"这两种发展路径下的技术学习率。结果表明:多目标情景下,实现中国非常规油气开发的目标规划,要保持较高的技术学习率。具体而言,在生产能力获得并不断积累的技术发展路径下,非常规油气开发技术必须保持3.30%~4.70%的技术学习率;在生产能力积累到创新能力突破的技术发展路径下,非常规油气开发技术在经历早期低水平学习率的适应性发展阶段后,需要保持11.60%~14.90%的高技术学习率。
[Abstract]:With the application of shale gas development technology as a representative, through multi-objective scenario setting, this paper explores the technical learning rate of unconventional oil and gas development in China under different development paths acquired by technical capability. Based on the theory of learning curve and the characteristics of different stages of technological development, the path of technology development is set up, and the parameter model of single factor learning curve is constructed. The technological learning rate of unconventional oil and gas technology application in the two development paths of "production capacity accumulation" and "technological innovation breakthrough" is estimated. The results show that under the multi-objective scenario, the target planning of unconventional oil and gas development in China can be realized. In order to maintain a high technological learning rate, the unconventional oil and gas development technology must maintain a technical learning rate of 3.30% or 4.70% under the technological development path of production capacity acquired and continuously accumulated. Under the technological development path from the accumulation of productive capacity to the breakthrough of innovation ability, the unconventional oil and gas development technology needs to maintain a high technology learning rate of 11.6060% 14.90% after experiencing the adaptive development stage of low learning rate in the early stage.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目“我国非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的投资激励策略研究”(71473193);国家自然科学基金资助项目“多目标诉求下我国交通节能减排市场导向的政策组合选择研究”(71473155)
【分类号】：F426.22

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