煤层气开发风险因素及量化模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 05:38

本文选题：煤层气　切入点：风险因素　出处：《中国矿业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤层气作为清洁的新能源,受到国家的高度重视。在我国“煤、电、油”荒不断的当下,煤层气的综合开发和利用对我国能源业将产生重大影响意义。煤层气产业将是我国政府未来大力扶持的产业,其规模的扩大势在必行。然而,目前煤层气产业在我国尚属发展初期,其开发项目的风险评价分析都不够成熟和完善,所以从多个角度对开发生产、管理等方面可能存在的风险因素进行筛查与评估是十分重要的。利用对已有文献及相关研究成果的分析,提出了从煤层气项目开发自身特点中寻找影响因素,通过从地质因素、工艺技术因素、经济因素和环境因素四个方面进行归纳总结,建立了煤层气项目风险评价指标体系。然后通过问卷调查的方式收集到业内专家对指标的两两比较打分,运用层次分析法与德尔菲法相互校对的方法,对所得数据进行分析得出各指标的权重,确定了最能影响煤层气项目开发的评价指标;最后运用了模糊综合评价和专家打分相结合的方法构建了模糊综合评估模型,并结合山西晋城潘庄煤层气项目的问卷调查得到的数据,运用模型进行了实证研究,评估其风险大小,并提出相应的对策。通过本论文的研究,作者发现了煤层气行业评价体系可以深入研究的许多方面。为今后煤层气项目评价做了理论基础,取得了一定的研究成果价值。尤其是在评价体系的构建方面,值得今后进行拓展研究。
[Abstract]:Coal bed methane (CBM), as a clean new energy source, is highly valued by the state. The comprehensive development and utilization of CBM will have a great impact on the energy industry of our country. The CBM industry will be the industry supported by our government in the future, and the expansion of its scale is imperative. At present, the coal bed methane industry is still in the early stage of development in China, and the risk assessment and analysis of its development projects are not mature and perfect, so the development and production of the coal bed methane industry are carried out from a variety of angles. It is very important to screen and evaluate the possible risk factors in management and other aspects. Based on the analysis of the existing literature and related research results, this paper puts forward to seek the influencing factors from the characteristics of CBM project development, through the geological factors, In this paper, the process technical factors, economic factors and environmental factors are summarized and summarized, and the evaluation index system of coal bed methane project risk is established. Then, by means of questionnaire survey, experts in the industry are collected to compare and score the indicators. By using the method of mutual proofreading of AHP and Delphi method, the weight of each index is obtained by analyzing the obtained data, and the evaluation index which can affect the development of CBM project is determined. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is constructed by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and expert scoring, and the data obtained from the survey of Panzhuang coalbed methane project in Jincheng, Shanxi Province, are studied empirically. Through the research of this paper, the author finds out that the evaluation system of coalbed methane industry can be deeply studied in many aspects, and makes a theoretical foundation for the evaluation of CBM projects in the future. Some research results have been obtained, especially in the construction of evaluation system, which is worthy of further research.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.2

【参考文献】