电力有源重要用户发用电风险传递研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 14:13

本文选题：有源重要用户 + 风险决策　；参考：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在未来智能电网中,配有独立电源的重要用户(亦称有源重要用户)会扮演着双重角色,既是二次能源和用电服务的使用者,也会在与电力公司进行交易时利用自备电源接入变成电力的提供者。电力公司原有的风险管理制度将不足以应对有源用户变化带来的新的风险。为了切实保障用户和电力公司的利益,针对有源用户发用电风险的研究就显得十分必要了。本文以未来有源用户带来的新的风险为切入点,从用户投资建设自备电源决策与经济评价、有源用户发电风险和有源用户用电风险三个方面展开研究。(1)以分布式电源作为用户建立自备电源的投资方案,以经济效益和环境效益设立指标构建基于灰色累积前景理论的风险决策模型,求出最优方案。借鉴风险元传递思想,以经济评价指标为风险元,建立最优方案经济评价风险元传递模型,分析经济效益。(2)提出直线型和层次型两种有源用户发电风险传递路径,分别采用马尔科夫链和改进的蚁群算法模拟风险传递过程,计算由于风险传递带来的损失,并从不同角度给出风险应对策略。(3)解析了有源用户用电双向风险传递模式。在满足激励相容理论的基础上,基于用户用电风险构建了可以适合不同目标的负荷中断最优化分配模型。采用蒙特卡洛模拟了负荷中断时,供电公司根据用户风险最优分配负荷中断量的过程,证明了用户上报真实用电风险时才可获得期望最大利润。
[Abstract]:In the future smart grid, important users with independent power sources (also known as active important users) will play a dual role as users of secondary energy and electricity services. They also use their own power access to become power providers when dealing with power companies. The existing risk management system of power companies will not be sufficient to cope with the new risks caused by the change of active users. In order to protect the interests of users and power companies, it is necessary to study the risk of active users. Based on the new risks brought by active users in the future, this paper makes a decision and economic evaluation on the investment and construction of self-provided power supply. Research on three aspects of active users' power generation risk and active user's power consumption risk. (1) using distributed power source as the investment scheme to establish their own power supply, The risk decision model based on the grey cumulative foreground theory is constructed by setting up the indexes of economic and environmental benefit, and the optimal scheme is obtained. Using the idea of risk element transfer for reference, taking economic evaluation index as risk element, establishing the transmission model of risk element for economic evaluation of optimal scheme, and analyzing economic benefits, the paper puts forward two kinds of transmission paths of risk of active users: linear type and hierarchical type. Markov chain and improved ant colony algorithm are used to simulate the process of risk transfer, and the loss caused by risk transmission is calculated, and the risk coping strategy is given from different angles. On the basis of the theory of incentive compatibility, the optimal load interruption allocation model is constructed based on the user's power consumption risk. When Monte Carlo is used to simulate the load interruption, the power supply company distributes the load interruption according to the risk of the user, and proves that the expected maximum profit can be obtained only when the user reports the real power risk.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.61

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