A公司高效单晶硅生产项目的可行性分析

发布时间：2018-05-24 06:15

本文选题：光伏产业 + 双反政策　；参考：《河南科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着传统能源的萎缩和生态环境的恶化,太阳能作为环保、安全、清洁能源,无疑成为一种理想的新型能源。随之便催演出太阳能转变为电能的技术产业——光伏产业。但现在我国光伏行业出现了产能过剩,市场混乱等现象,尤其欧美“双反政策”给我国光伏市场带来的沉痛打击。而高效单晶硅项目的提出,将会很好地打破这一僵局,使我国光伏产业走出困境,迎来新的春天。本项目的研究和分析是以光伏产业市场为主线,利用文献研究法、调查法、观察法、定性分析法等研究方法。查阅了大量文献,全面地总结和分析前人在高效单晶硅项目方面的研究成果,为本文铺垫大量的理论基础;调查和收集了有关高效单晶硅项目的研究报告和相关数据,为本文提供正确地数据依据;利用SWOT分析法和PEST分析法充分阐述了项目的优势、劣势、威胁、机会和微观行业环境的现状;同时根据A公司的现金流量估算该项目的投资回收期、投资净现值和内部收益率,科学地评估该项目的可行性。在项目风险分析中分别对该项目进行了盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析,科学把握该项目的所存在的风险概率和大小,并在最大程度上进行防范。根据本项目上述研究和分析方法,基于项目计划运营10年,依据CAPM计算的贴现率为14.9%;依据现金流计算出本项目动态回收期为3.3年,少于原估计的5年;依据“确定当量法”计算出净现值为8156.77万元,远大于零,投资方案可行;依据EXCEL工具得出内部收益率为31.4%,大于投资者要求的收益率14.9%,该项目效益好。本项目的推出,正值全球光伏行业的“寒冬”期,它的推广和应用能及时地、正确地调整光伏行业的整体布局,使光伏行业规范的、健康的发展;也可以快速提升国内光伏行业在全球市场中的整体竞争力。反映了我国光伏行业走出瓶颈和完善光伏发展战略的重要体现。
[Abstract]:With the decline of traditional energy and the deterioration of ecological environment, solar energy, as an environmental protection, safe and clean energy, has undoubtedly become an ideal new type of energy. As a result, the performance of solar energy into electricity technology industry-the photovoltaic industry. But now the photovoltaic industry of our country has appeared the phenomenon such as overcapacity, market chaos and so on, especially the European and American "double counter policy" to our country photovoltaic market brings the deep blow. The proposal of high efficiency monocrystalline silicon project will break the deadlock and make the photovoltaic industry of our country get out of the predicament and usher in a new spring. The research and analysis of this project take photovoltaic industry market as the main line, using literature research method, investigation method, observation method, qualitative analysis method and other research methods. We have reviewed a lot of literature, summarized and analyzed the previous research results in the high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon project, laid a large number of theoretical foundation for this paper, investigated and collected the research report and related data of the high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon project, Provide the correct data basis for this paper, use SWOT analysis method and PEST analysis method to fully explain the advantages, disadvantages, threats, opportunities and micro-industry environment of the project. At the same time, according to the cash flow of company A, the investment payback period, net present value and internal rate of return of the project are estimated, and the feasibility of the project is evaluated scientifically. In the risk analysis of the project, the break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis of the project are carried out respectively, and the probability and magnitude of the risk of the project are scientifically grasped, and the prevention is carried out to the greatest extent. According to the above research and analysis method of the project, the discount rate calculated according to CAPM for 10 years based on the project plan, the dynamic payback period of the project calculated according to cash flow is 3.3 years, which is less than the original estimated 5 years. The net present value is 81.5677 million yuan, far greater than zero, and the investment scheme is feasible. According to the EXCEL tool, the internal rate of return is 31.4, which is greater than the rate of 14. 9 required by investors, and the project has good benefit. The introduction of this project, when the global photovoltaic industry "winter" period, its promotion and application can timely and correctly adjust the overall layout of the photovoltaic industry, so that the photovoltaic industry standard, healthy development; Also can quickly enhance the domestic photovoltaic industry in the global market overall competitiveness. It reflects the important embodiment of the photovoltaic industry out of the bottleneck and the improvement of photovoltaic development strategy.
【学位授予单位】：河南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TQ127.2;F426.6

【参考文献】