电力客户分时电价预测系统的设计与实现

发布时间：2018-06-06 05:30

本文选题：需求侧管理 + 峰谷分时电价　；参考：《电子科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：开放需求侧,实现需求侧管理(DSM),引入需求价格弹性,利用价格手段实现负荷调控,是电力市场发展的必经之路,而作为电力需求侧管理的一种重要手段,峰谷分时电价可以实现削峰填谷,提高电力系统的稳定性和经济性,其核心内容是合理的制定峰谷电价水平,提供给消费者充足有效的价格信号。电价是改变电力客户用电方式的有效途径,也是电力市场一种非常有效的调节手段,电力工业改革与发展的核心问题之一就是电价的制定。而峰谷分时电价作为电力市场需求侧管理的一种重要手段,已在世界各国的电力工业市场的经济管理中发挥着举足轻重的作用。本课题所研究的需求响应项目是根据市场的电价机制,通过进行削峰填谷,来缓解系统短期容量缺额,最终达到改善电力系统日负荷曲线,提高电能质量的目的。除此之外,运用峰谷分时电价不仅可以降低用户的电能成本,提高电能效益,实现削峰填谷,还可以减少或延缓电网投资,减少电网的备用容量,对于提高电力系统稳定性,提升电网的经济运行水平具有极其重要的意义。首先,本文基于价格需求响应机制,分析用户对电价的响应,采用需求价格弹性来反映实行峰谷分时电价后用户的需求,以调峰为目标建立峰谷分时电价的优化模型,其中包括构造模型的目标函数、需要满足的约束条件、确定决策变量等,从而建立含各类约束的非线性规划模型。其次,采用最优化的方法对该模型进行分析求解,获得峰、谷、平优化分时电价,将该分时电价信息传给用户,用户根据电价做出相应的用电调整计划。最后,在得到峰、谷、平优化分时电价后,通过分析在改变优化时段的划分、改变用户响应度的情况下日负荷曲线的变化,反映上述因素对日负荷曲线的影响情况,为实际情况下峰谷分时电价的制定提供决策支持。本文设计的电力客户分时电价预测系统系统从功能结构上主要分为三大功能,预付费售电功能、远程下发功能、数据分析功能,十一大模块,包括数据接口模块、数据计算模块、档案管理模块、预付电费售电模块、电量计算模块、电量下发模块、票据打印模块、数据分析模块、账务对账模块、报表管理模块、权限管理模块。该系统项目主要是对营销业务系统与各硬件厂商系统提供数据的相关模块进行交互,通过对模块内部以及模块之间数据的交互达到数据持久化的目的,为供电公司经营提供帮助。
[Abstract]:Opening demand side, realizing demand side management, introducing demand price elasticity, and realizing load control by price means are the only way to develop electricity market, and as an important means of power demand side management, Peak-valley time-sharing price can realize peak cutting and valley filling, and improve the stability and economy of power system. Its core content is to make the peak and valley price level reasonably, and to provide sufficient and effective price signals to consumers. Electricity price is an effective way to change the mode of electricity consumption, and it is also a very effective means of regulation in electricity market. One of the core problems in the reform and development of power industry is the making of electricity price. As an important means of power market demand side management, peak-valley time-sharing price has played an important role in the economic management of power industry market around the world. According to the electricity price mechanism of the market, the demand response project studied in this paper is to reduce the short term capacity deficit of the system by cutting the peak and filling the valley, and finally to improve the daily load curve and the power quality of the power system. In addition, the use of peak and valley time-sharing price can not only reduce the power cost of users, improve power efficiency, realize peak cutting and filling valley, but also reduce or delay the investment of power network, reduce the reserve capacity of power network, and improve the stability of power system. It is of great significance to improve the economic operation level of power grid. First of all, based on the price demand response mechanism, this paper analyzes the response of users to electricity price, adopts demand price elasticity to reflect the demand of customers after the implementation of peak-valley time-sharing price, and sets up an optimization model of peak-valley time-sharing price with peak-shaving as the goal. It includes constructing the objective function of the model, the constraint conditions to be satisfied, and determining the decision variables, so as to establish the nonlinear programming model with all kinds of constraints. Secondly, the model is analyzed and solved by the method of optimization, and the peak, valley and average time-sharing price are obtained, and the information of the time-sharing price is passed to the user, who makes the corresponding electricity adjustment plan according to the electricity price. Finally, after obtaining the peak, valley and average time-sharing price, the paper analyzes the change of daily load curve under the condition of changing the division of the optimized time period and changing the user's responsivity, which reflects the influence of the above factors on the daily load curve. It provides decision support for the determination of peak-valley time-sharing electricity price in practice. The electric power customer time-sharing price prediction system designed in this paper is mainly divided into three functions from the function structure: prepaid electricity sale function, remote sending function, data analysis function, eleven modules, including data interface module. Data calculation module, file management module, electricity prepaid electricity sale module, electricity quantity calculation module, electricity quantity distribution module, bill printing module, data analysis module, account reconciliation module, report management module, authority management module. The system project is mainly to the marketing business system and the hardware manufacturer system to provide data related modules, through the module and module data interaction to achieve the purpose of data persistence. To provide assistance for the operation of power supply companies.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TP311.52;F426.61

【参考文献】