某型号雷达导引头研制项目风险识别与评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 12:24

本文选题：雷达导引头 + 风险识别　；参考：《中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：大部分航天项目需要高额的经费、研制周期长、存在不特定的风险,在经济衰退的大背景下,国内外航天产品市场之间的竞争变得更加激烈。为了保证我国航天产品的可靠性,提高其市场竞争能力和经济效益,必须进行全面细致的风险识别和风险评估,制定具体的风险应对措施,减少风险发生。本文在查阅大量文献和实践调研的基础上,对于某型号雷达导引头研制项目风险识别和评估方法进行了全面深入的分析,完成的主要工作如下：1、结合项目特点建立了风险管理体系,介绍了风险管理办公室的成员及各自职责,说明了可靠性管理小组、关键技术攻关小组、综合计划进度管理小组和重大系统试验管理小组共4个专项风险管理小组的具体职能；2、采用德尔菲法进行了三轮调查,确定了项目可能出现的30个风险因素和风险等级；采用WBS-RBS法,项目分解为启动、论证、方案等6个研制阶段,WBS分解为设计、生产、试验等6个产品实现流程；RBS分解为技术风险、进度风险等7个风险分类,再进一步分解为设计缺陷风险、工艺可行性风险等30个风险因素；构建了WBS-RBS矩阵；3、采用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合,建立了项目的风险评估模型,定义了因素集与评价集,设计了《风险评估调查表》,建立了判断矩阵和模糊评判矩阵,计算了各层判断矩阵的权重并进行一致性检验,计算了一级模糊评价结果,评估出30个风险因素的风险等级并按从大到小排序；4、结合项目的实际情况,制定了30个风险因素的风险应对措施,对项目进行动态风险管理,在项目各阶段进行风险识别、评估、应对和监控,取得了较好的应用效果,项目按照性能指标、计划进度、经费预算和安全性可靠性要求,顺利完成阶段性研制任务,实现了“一次投产成功,一次飞行成功”的质量目标。论文以某型号雷达导引头研制项目为例,对项目风险识别和评估方法进行了深入的分析和研究,具有实质性的指导意义。也可供其他同类型航天工程研制项目作借鉴和参考。
[Abstract]:Most spaceflight projects need high cost, long development cycle, there is no specific risk, in the background of economic recession, the competition between domestic and foreign aerospace products market becomes more fierce. In order to ensure the reliability of China's aerospace products and improve their market competitiveness and economic benefits, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive and meticulous risk identification and risk assessment, formulate specific risk response measures, and reduce risk occurrence. On the basis of consulting a large number of documents and practical investigation, this paper makes a comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the risk identification and evaluation methods of a certain type of radar seeker development project. The main work accomplished is as follows: 1. According to the characteristics of the project, the risk management system is established. The members of the risk management office and their respective responsibilities are introduced, and the reliability management team and the key technology team are explained. The specific functions of the integrated plan schedule management team and the major systems test management team are four specific risk management teams. Three rounds of investigations were conducted using the Delphi method to determine the 30 risk factors and risk levels that may arise in the project; By using WBS-RBS method, the project is decomposed into six stages of development, such as start-up, demonstration and scheme, and the WBS is decomposed into seven risk categories, such as design, production, test and other six product realization processes, such as technical risk, schedule risk, etc. Furthermore, it is further decomposed into 30 risk factors, such as design defect risk, process feasibility risk, etc. The WBS-RBS matrix is constructed, and the risk assessment model of the project is established by the combination of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The factor set and evaluation set are defined, the risk assessment questionnaire is designed, the judgment matrix and fuzzy evaluation matrix are established, the weight of each judgement matrix is calculated and the consistency test is carried out, and the first-order fuzzy evaluation results are calculated. The risk grade of 30 risk factors was evaluated and ranked from large to small. Combined with the actual situation of the project, the risk response measures of 30 risk factors were formulated, and the dynamic risk management of the project was carried out, and the risk identification was carried out in all stages of the project. Evaluation, response and monitoring have achieved good application results. According to performance indicators, planning schedule, budget and security reliability requirements, the project has successfully completed the stage development task and realized the "successful production at one time." A successful flight "quality target". Taking a certain type of radar seeker as an example, this paper makes a deep analysis and research on the method of project risk identification and evaluation, which has substantial guiding significance. It can also be used as reference for other similar aerospace engineering research and development projects.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TJ760;F426.5

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