云南省德宏州卷烟产品市场需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 18:33

【摘要】：地市级烟草公司是我国烟草行业卷烟经营的主体,具体负责本地卷烟经营和市场管理,是“按客户订单组织货源”工作开展的发起方,也是此项工作在烟草行业内部循环的终点,如何准确预测卷烟市场需求,组织适销对路货源,满足市场需求,成为今后一段时期地市级烟草公司卷烟营销工作的重点内容之一。本文选取云南省德宏州烟草商业企业为研究对象,首先对德宏州卷烟市场2006年—2015年卷烟销售数据进行分析整理,得出近10年来德宏州市场卷烟销售规律,并结合当前卷烟消费环境分析和卷烟市场发展“新常态”下的市场热点,对德宏州卷烟市场消费特点进行了总结；其次,在对德宏州烟草公司现行卷烟市场需求预测相关文献的查阅分析研究基础上,提出了现行需求预测机制与方法存在的问题,并根据所提出的问题,选择从需求预测模型的重新构建为切入点,通过对年度、半年度、月度需求预测模型的构建、检验和实证研究,提出了年度预测模型为双对数预测模型,半年度、月度预测模型为季节指数预测模型；最后,针对德宏州烟草公司现行需求预测机制和方法存在的问题,以新构建需求预测模型为基础,以提高市场需求预测的工作效率和准确性为出发点,提出了以定量预测模块和定性预测模块相结合的卷烟市场需求预测机制的建议,同时依据所建议市场需求预测机制,进一步优化完善了相关工作流程。
[Abstract]:City-level tobacco companies are the main body of cigarette management in China's tobacco industry. They are specifically responsible for local cigarette management and market management. They are the initiator of the work of "organizing supply according to customer's order" and the end point of this work in the internal circulation of the tobacco industry. Market demand will become one of the key contents of cigarette marketing work of prefectural and municipal tobacco companies in the future. In this paper, tobacco commercial enterprises in Dehong Prefecture of Yunnan Province are selected as the research object. Firstly, the cigarette sales data from 2006 to 2015 in Dehong Prefecture cigarette market are analyzed and sorted out, and the cigarette sales law of Dehong Prefecture market in the past 10 years is obtained. Combining with the analysis of current cigarette consumption environment and the hot spot of cigarette market development under the "new normal", this paper summarizes the consumption characteristics of Dehong cigarette market; secondly, on the basis of consulting and analyzing the relevant literatures of the current cigarette market demand forecast of Dehong tobacco company, the paper puts forward the existing demand forecast mechanism and methods. On the basis of the above problems, this paper chooses the reconstruction of demand forecasting model as the breakthrough point. Through the construction, test and empirical research of annual, semi-annual and monthly demand forecasting model, it puts forward the annual forecasting model as the double logarithmic forecasting model, semi-annual and monthly forecasting model as the seasonal index forecasting model. In view of the problems existing in the current demand forecasting mechanism and method of Dehong tobacco company, this paper puts forward the suggestion of cigarette market demand forecasting mechanism combining quantitative forecasting module with qualitative forecasting module on the basis of a new demand forecasting model to improve the efficiency and accuracy of market demand forecasting. It is suggested that the market demand forecasting mechanism be further optimized and perfected.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.8;F274

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