美国经济波动对中国丝绸出口贸易的影响

发布时间：2018-12-20 12:11

【摘要】：在纵观近30年中国茧丝绸生产与贸易波动的基础上,利用1995—2014年中美两国的丝绸贸易面板数据,就中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易影响机制进行实证检验,得出以下结果:(1)在美国经济波动时期,中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易与其经济波动具有显著正效应,且二者之间呈正相关;(2)美国经济波动促进中国对其丝绸出口贸易的产品主要是绸缎和丝绸服饰类,反映出美国的丝绸消费档次在提升的同时,中国的丝绸产品生产技术水平与出口贸易产品品质亦在相应提高;(3)价格已不再是影响中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易增长的主要因素,单纯依靠价格已不能赢得国际市场优势。正确预测美国的经济波动趋势,有利于分散其经济波动风险对中国丝绸企业的冲击,促进中国对美国的丝绸出口贸易水平持续提升。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the fluctuation of China's cocoon silk production and trade in the past 30 years, using the silk trade panel data of China and the United States from 1995 to 2014, the paper makes an empirical test on the influence mechanism of China's silk export trade to the United States. The following results are obtained: (1) during the period of American economic fluctuation, China's silk export trade to the United States has a significant positive effect on its economic fluctuation, and there is a positive correlation between the two; (2) the main products that promote China's export of silk to the United States are satin and silk clothing, reflecting the rising level of silk consumption in the United States at the same time. China's silk production technology level and export trade product quality is also improving accordingly; (3) the price is no longer the main factor that affects the increase of China's silk export trade to the United States, and the price alone can no longer win the advantage of the international market. Correctly predicting the trend of economic fluctuation in the United States is conducive to dispersing the impact of the risk of economic fluctuation on Chinese silk enterprises and promoting the level of silk export trade between China and the United States to continue to improve.
【作者单位】：浙江大学经济学院;
【基金】：农业部重大专项课题(No.101301*D20901)
【分类号】：F426.8;F752.62;F171.2

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