日本经济的抗油价冲击能力分析——经济增长结构的视角

发布时间：2019-03-01 16:08

【摘要】：虽然日本对海外原油高度依赖,但在近30年的油价波动中并未显现严重的经济震荡。针对该现象,通过对日本GDP、国民经济核算支出法五部门以及特色行业的三层次递进分析尝试进行经济学解释,发现:1985年之前,日本经济尚符合油价上涨时GDP下降的典型特征;1986—2010年,油价上涨未给消费部门带来显著效应,却给投资以及出口部门带来正效应,由于消费部门的GDP占比下降,投资与出口部门的占比上升,最终造成GDP未发生明显震荡的结果。深入至汽车产业,油价上涨后日本的汽车出口显著增加,这是导致出口部门正效应的一个重要来源。合理的经济增长结构以及产品的低能耗特点是日本经济抵御油价冲击的重要支撑,而深层次原因在于日本能源供应结构的优化与充足的原油储备。
[Abstract]:Although Japan is highly dependent on overseas crude oil, it has not shown a serious economic shock in the past 30 years of oil price volatility. In view of this phenomenon, through the three-level progressive analysis of the five sectors of the Japanese GDP, National Accounting Expenditure Law and the characteristic industries, it is found that: before 1985, Japan's economy is still in line with the typical characteristics of the decline in GDP when oil prices rise; In 1986-2010, the rise in oil prices did not have a significant effect on the consumer sector, but on the investment and export sectors. As the share of GDP in the consumer sector declined, the share of the investment and export sectors rose. The result was that there was no obvious oscillation in GDP. Deep into the auto industry, Japan's auto exports have increased significantly after higher oil prices, an important source of positive effects in the export sector. Reasonable economic growth structure and low energy consumption of products are the important support for Japanese economy to resist the impact of oil price, and the deep reason lies in the optimization of Japan's energy supply structure and abundant crude oil reserves.
【作者单位】：西北大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“基于波动因素时点分解方法的原油市场演化规律研究”(编号:13CJY042) 国家自然科学基金项目“会计师事务所异质性对财务重述的影响研究——基于媒介环境的调节效应分析”(编号:71502138)
【分类号】：F131.3;F764.1

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