进口价格波动对中国乳制品进口来源布局的影响研究

发布时间：2019-04-08 17:28

【摘要】：本文使用2012年1月—2016年3月海关月度数据,采用动态和静态AIDS模型,分别从短期和长期视角,实证分析了进口价格波动和中澳自贸协定生效对中国乳制品进口来源布局的影响。结果表明:由于长期协整关系存在,短期内乳制品进口对长期均衡水平的偏离将在下月被修正80%左右。乳清进口格局相对稳定,法国和美国乳清产品相对割裂,两国乳清并不能完全替代;随着乳制品需求增加,中国倾向于进口更多的奶粉。长期来看,国际奶粉价格下降使得中国进口来源将更趋向于澳大利亚和新西兰,而其他地区份额将伴随性下降。中澳自贸协定的实施,预计将使中国自澳大利亚和新西兰奶粉进口量提升10%左右,使中国自澳大利亚奶粉进口量提高35%左右。中国液态奶进口市场对新西兰依赖度较强,澳大利亚和法国更易受到价格冲击,进口量相对不稳定。
[Abstract]:This paper uses monthly customs data from January 2012 to March 2016, using dynamic and static AIDS models, from a short-term and a long-term perspective, respectively. The impact of import price fluctuation and the entry into force of China-Australia Free Trade Agreement on the distribution of dairy products import sources in China is empirically analyzed. The results show that due to the existence of long-term co-integration, the deviation of dairy imports from the long-term equilibrium level will be revised by about 80% next month. The pattern of whey imports is relatively stable, French and American whey products are relatively split, whey can not be completely replaced by the two countries; as the demand for dairy products increases, China tends to import more milk powder. In the long run, the fall in international milk prices will make Chinese imports more likely to be in Australia and New Zealand, while other regional share will be accompanied by a decline in share. The implementation of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement is expected to boost China's milk powder imports from Australia and New Zealand by about 10 percent and China's milk powder imports from Australia by about 35 percent. China's liquid milk import market is more dependent on New Zealand, Australia and France are more vulnerable to price shocks, and imports are relatively volatile.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;北京农学院经济管理学院;
【基金】：2013年度国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373025) 2014年度国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473019) 北京市属高等学校高层次人才引进与培养计划项目(CIT&TCD20140314) 现代奶牛产业技术体系北京市创团队
【分类号】：F752.61;F426.82

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