60后婴儿潮退休背景下的养老和退休政策选择

发布时间：2018-01-02 10:00

本文关键词：60后婴儿潮退休背景下的养老和退休政策选择　出处：《经济评论》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文采用动态规划的方法,考察了不同养老制度和退休方案对产出和效用的影响。结果发现,如果基于产出最大化目标,应实行即时延迟退休和家庭养老的制度组合。如果基于效用最大化目标,应实行不延迟退休和家庭养老的制度组合;考虑到家庭效用和社会产出的替代性,综合社会公平和经济效率,短期应实行逐步延迟退休和积累制的养老制度组合,长期应实行即时延迟退休和积累制的养老制度组合;从长期来看,对于总产出,延迟退休的作用相对较大,对于人均效用,养老制度的作用较大。当然在要素使用效率不变情况下,随着人口世代更迭引致适龄劳动人口数量的减少,养老负担的加大以及资本红利的消失,无论实行哪种养老和退休方案,都无法改变未来经济增速急剧下降的趋势。为此,在短期稳定经济形势的前提下,长期内必须转变经济增长方式,并寻找经济发展的新引擎。
[Abstract]:This paper investigates the effects of different pension systems and retirement schemes on output and utility by means of dynamic programming. The system combination of immediate delay retirement and family old-age pension should be implemented. If based on the goal of maximizing utility, the system combination of non-delay retirement and family pension should be implemented; In view of the substitution of family utility and social output, the combination of social equity and economic efficiency should be implemented in the short term with gradual delay in retirement and accumulation of pension systems. In the long run, we should implement the combination of immediate delayed retirement and accumulation pension system; In the long run, for the total output, the role of delayed retirement is relatively greater, for per capita utility, the pension system has a greater role. Of course, in the case of factor use efficiency unchanged. With the change of population generation resulting in the reduction of the number of working age population, the increase of pension burden and the disappearance of capital dividend, no matter what kind of pension and retirement programs are implemented. Neither can change the trend of sharp decline in economic growth in the future. In order to stabilize the economic situation in the short term, we must change the mode of economic growth in the long run and look for a new engine of economic development.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;山东大学经济研究院;
【分类号】：D669.6;F249.2
【正文快照】： 一、引言及文献综述2015年左右,随着人口世代的更迭,60后婴儿潮逐渐步入退休年龄且90后和00后出生低谷人口陆续进入劳动力市场,引致中国适龄劳动人口数量开始出现减少(见图1),养老负担加大,人口红利消失,中国经济的劳动引擎动力不足。如果中国经济不能从单纯依靠劳动数量转向

【相似文献】