崛起国与主导国的关系模式——前景理论对权力转移理论的修正

发布时间：2018-01-23 10:50

本文关键词： 权力转移崛起国主导国前景理论　出处：《国际论坛》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：权力转移理论认为崛起国必然首先发起对主导国的进攻。近来一些学者运用这种简单的单向思维来分析中美关系的未来,得出悲观的结论。但这一逻辑存在以下问题:一是在理论上排除了主导国会首先发动进攻的可能;二是在经验上被相关学者证伪;三是在政策建议中忽视了如何防范主导国发动进攻。本文借助前景理论中对"收益"和"损失"的框定来分析权力转移中崛起国和主导国的关系图景,提出四点假设。接着运用二战中的德国和苏联的关系以及20世纪80—90年代的日本和美国的关系两个案例,重点对假设三(当主导国将前景框定为"损失",而崛起国框定为"收益"时,主导国倾向于发动预防性战争)进行验证。
[Abstract]:The power transfer theory believes that the rise of the country must first launched on the leading country attack. Recently some scholars use this simple way of thinking to analyze the future of Sino US relations, the pessimistic conclusion. But this logic has the following problems: one is eliminated in theory Congress may be attacked first; two is in experience by related scholars falsification; three is in the policy recommendations were ignored in how to prevent the attack. With the help of the leading country of the transfer of power in the relationship between China and the rise of picture leading country of "income" and "loss" framed in prospect theory, four hypotheses are proposed. Then the relationship between Germany and the Soviet Union during World War II and in twentieth Century 80 the relationship between Japan and the United States in 90s two of the cases, focusing on hypothesis three (when the leading country will prospect framed as "loss", and the rise of framed as "income", the leading country tend to Launch a preventive war) to verify.

【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学哲学院政治学系;
【分类号】：D815
【正文快照】： 1958年奥根斯基(A.F.K.Organski)在《世界政治》(World Politics)一书中首创权力转移理论(PowerTransitioin Theory,下文简称PTT)。由于它直接关注国际体系中权力转移时期主导国与崛起国之间的关系而被广泛运用于国际关系的研究,特别是现实政策含义的研究。近年来,随着中国的

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