中华帝国治理的“不可能三角”与治乱周期:从“风险论”出发

发布时间：2018-03-17 11:16

本文选题：威权政体政权存续　切入点：风险治理　出处：《社会》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文由曹正汉提出的"风险论"出发,以威权政体政权存续的理论视角,探究中国治乱周期与统治者风险治理策略之间的关系,以及在治乱之间,统治者透过何种机制调节动态平衡以维系政权,又为何调节风险平衡机制在某些时候能奏效在另一时点上却失灵。藉由历史制度主义的时序分析,本文提出风险治理的"不可能三角",以解释治乱周期的波动,并发现风险调节机制之所以越到朝代后期越难奏效,肇因于开朝初期统治者为防制政变风险所采取的政治吸纳策略。这些策略随着时间演化及一连串反应序列后,破坏了统治者用来防治民变及外患风险的机制,并进一步弱化了国家的基础权力,导致国家能力下降,风险平衡机制失灵,从而陷入统治危机。
[Abstract]:Based on the "risk theory" put forward by Cao Zhenghan, this paper explores the relationship between the cycle of governance of chaos in China and the governance strategy of rulers' risk from the theoretical perspective of the existence of authoritarian regimes, as well as the relationship between governance of chaos and the period of governance. Through what mechanism the ruler adjusts the dynamic balance to maintain the regime, and why the mechanism of regulating the balance of risks can work at some time but fails at another time, by the time series analysis of historical institutionalism, In this paper, the "impossible triangle" of risk management is proposed to explain the fluctuation of chaos control cycle, and it is found that the mechanism of risk regulation becomes more and more difficult to work until the later period of the dynasty. This was due to the political absorption strategies adopted by rulers to prevent the risk of coup d'茅 tat in the early days of the Kai Dynasty. These strategies evolved over time and a series of reaction sequences, which destroyed the mechanism used by the rulers to prevent and control the people's revolt and the risk of foreign invasion. And further weakened the basic power of the state, resulting in the decline of national capacity, risk balance mechanism failure, thus falling into the governance crisis.
【作者单位】：浙江大学社会学系;浙江大学地方政府与社会治理研究中心;
【分类号】：D691.2

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