对关键节点下缅甸军方政治选择动因的分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 15:28

本文选题：缅甸政治发展　切入点：关键节点　出处：《国际观察》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在当代缅甸政治发展的关键节点上,军方的政治选择往往是决定缅甸今后政治发展走向的关键。不理解军方在关键节点下做出政治选择的原因就无法理解缅甸政治发展的过去、现在和未来。通过对缅甸独立以来七次关键节点军方政治选择的案例分析,本文认为,决定军方政治选择的关键变量是军人核心利益与文官力量。影响军方政治选择的行动逻辑有两个,首先军队要坚决维护核心利益;其次军队要考虑文官力量的强弱,文官力量影响着军方政治行为的方式与规模。即便近年来缅甸民主化进程加速,军人核心利益与文官力量的分析框架仍然适用于对缅甸军人政治行为和缅甸政治发展的分析。
[Abstract]:At the key nodes of political development in contemporary Myanmar, the political choices of the military are often the key to determining the future direction of political development in Myanmar. Without understanding the reasons why the military makes political choices under the key nodes, it is impossible to understand the past of political development in Myanmar. Now and in the future. Based on a case study of the military's political choices at seven key nodes since Myanmar's independence, this paper believes, The key variables determining the political choice of the military are the core interests of the military and the civilian forces. There are two operational logic that affect the political choice of the military. First, the army must resolutely safeguard the core interests; secondly, the army should consider the strength of the civilian force. Even though the democratization process in Myanmar has accelerated in recent years, the analysis framework of military core interests and civilian forces is still applicable to the analysis of Myanmar military political behavior and political development.
【作者单位】：吉林大学行政学院政治学系;吉林大学行政学院;
【基金】：2017年国家社科基金项目(项目编号:17BZZ085) 吉林大学廉政建设专项研究课题(项目编号:2015LZY032)阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D733.7

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