我国失能老人数量及其结构的定量预测分析

发布时间：2018-04-26 17:21

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 失能老人　；参考：《人口学刊》2017年06期

【摘要】：现阶段我国人口老龄化发展迅速导致失能老人的基数巨大,他们的日常生活需要有人照料,借助外部护理服务来弥补自身失去的生理机能,这就需要大量的社会照料资源。由于我国家庭规模小型化,老年人长期护理成本居高不下,养老机构发展滞后等因素造成老年人护理服务供给不足,给我国社会保障体系带来严峻的考验。适时掌握我国失能老人数量,测算未来我国分城乡失能老人数量的变化和发展趋势,为我国建立老年长期护理保险制度提供需求、成本与供给预算的依据。本文从分析我国失能老人数量及基本状况入手,进而测算出未来我国分城乡失能老人数量的变化和发展趋势。据测算2015年我国60岁及以上失能人口约为1 563万人,其中生活完全不能自理老人约330万人。2054年我国失能老人总量将达到峰值约4 300万人,其中生活完全不能自理老人约1 600万。失能老人占总人口的比重将从现阶段的1.15%上升到2054年的3.1%,2054年之后将维持在这一水平上。我国应该尽快建立健全老年长期护理保险制度,建立失能评估机构以及专门护理机构、日间照料机构和居家护理服务机构,失能老人长期照料服务体系需要较多的人力资源投入。
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid development of aging population in our country leads to a huge base of disabled elderly people. Their daily life needs to be cared for by someone, and the external nursing services are used to make up for their lost physiological functions, which requires a large number of social care resources. Owing to the miniaturization of family size, the high long-term nursing cost of the elderly and the lag in the development of pension institutions, the supply of nursing services for the elderly is insufficient, which brings a severe test to the social security system of our country. In order to provide the basis for the establishment of the long-term nursing insurance system for the elderly, we should grasp the number of the disabled elderly in China at the right time, calculate the change and development trend of the number of the disabled in urban and rural areas in the future, and provide the basis for the budget of the demand, cost and supply. This paper starts with the analysis of the number and basic situation of the disabled elderly in China, and then calculates the change and development trend of the number of the disabled elderly in urban and rural areas in the future. It is estimated that the disabled population of China aged 60 and above is about 15.63 million in 2015, of which 3.3 million are completely unable to take care of themselves. In 2054, the total number of disabled elderly people in China will reach a peak value of about 43 million, among which the total number of disabled elderly people who can not take care of themselves at all is about 16 million. The proportion of disabled people in the total population will rise from 1.15 percent at this stage to 3.1 percent in 2054 and will remain at this level after 2054. China should establish and improve the long-term care insurance system for the elderly as soon as possible, and establish disability assessment institutions, as well as specialized care institutions, day care institutions and home care services. The long-term care service system for disabled elderly needs more human resource input.
【作者单位】：吉林大学东北亚研究中心;长春工业大学人文学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目:失能老人长期照护资金规模测算及筹集模式研究(16CRK018);国家社会科学基金一般项目:“人的城镇化”理论与制度创新研究(14BRK035) 2016年吉林省教育厅“十三五”社会科学研究项目:吉林省失能老人长期照护资金规模测算及筹集模式研究(吉教科文合字[2016]第333号)
【分类号】：D669.6

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