居家养老基本服务需求的仿真研究
本文选题:居家养老服务 + 需求 ; 参考:《上海工程技术大学》2015年硕士论文
【摘要】:老龄化社会的到来使老人、家庭和国家面临诸多挑战,一方面老年人在生命的最后阶段生理机能弱化,需要他人照料;另一方面,核心家庭增加,家庭养老功能弱化亟需国家承担相应责任,因此国家将在老人照料、服务人员配置和资金供给等方面存在巨大挑战。居家养老作为国家发展的重要社会化养老服务方式,一方面,具有契合我国传统伦理观念,保证老人共享天伦之乐的优点;另一方面,整合多方资源,缓解家庭和国家的养老压力、负担。基于上述背景,本文重点从需求的角度,对未来居家养老服务项目需求、服务人员需求和资金需求进行了预测。本文研究方法包括:首先,运用文献研究法,收集相关政策资料和相关科研成果,整理、归纳并总结居家养老服务目前的研究和现实状况。其次,运用调查研究的方法,对上海市长宁区三泾南宅、绿园一村和金菊小区三个社区的1200名老人进行结构式访谈,获取他们的基本状况、现时生活状况、养老意愿和居家养老服务需求四方面的信息。再次,运用SPSS19.0统计软件对样本进行统计分析,其中包括描述性统计、交互式分析、单因素统计等。最后,运用VENSIM系统动力学软件对2014-2050年居家养老服务项目需求、服务人员数量和未来资金缺口进行了预测。本文主要有以下研究成果:第一,居家养老服务成首选,居家养老服务主体地位的定位切合老人养老意愿,59.4%的老年人选择居家养老。第二,养老服务需求多元化,但是生活照料、医疗保健和精神慰藉是当前老人最基本的三大服务需求。第三,分析了个人因素、经济因素和家庭因素对老人养老意愿、居家养老服务需求和经济承受能力的影响。第四,本文研究重点为需求的仿真,选取了需求要素、经济要素、老年人口数等因素构建系统动力学模型,预测出低、中、高三种需求程度下未来居家养老基本服务需求发展变化趋势,未来居家养老将出现三种发展阶段:需求量快速增长阶段(2014—2025),需求量平稳增长阶段(2026—2042),需求增长缓慢下降阶段(2043年以后);在具体服务项目方面,未来需求量最大的项目为上门做家务、聊天解闷、上门护理和上门看病;人力资源配置方面,未来不同服务项目对人员的需求情况为上门做家务、上门护理、聊天解闷和上门看病;财政供给层面,在未来近30年里,居家养老服务资金缺口将持续扩大,研究发现,当国家财政投入在2%—3%范围内浮动,且居家养老服务财政投入占养老服务财政投入范围为70%-90%时,更有利于保持居家养老供需平衡状态。为了实现居家养老的可持续发展,国家做到未雨绸缪。首先,政府应做好法规、制度、资金保障;社区做好软硬件建设;服务队伍要保证稳定性和专业化。
[Abstract]:The arrival of an aging society faces many challenges for the elderly, families and countries. On the one hand, the physical functions of the elderly are weakened in the final stage of their life, and they need to be cared for by others; on the other hand, the number of nuclear families increases. It is urgent for the state to take the corresponding responsibility for the weakening of the family old-age care function, so the country will have great challenges in the care of the elderly, the allocation of service personnel and the supply of funds. As an important socialized service for the aged in the development of our country, the family pension has the advantages of keeping in line with the traditional ethics of our country and ensuring the elderly to share the happiness of their families. On the other hand, it integrates various resources. Ease the family and the country's endowment pressure, burden. Based on the above background, this paper forecasts the demand, service personnel and capital demand of the future home pension service project from the point of view of demand. The research methods of this paper include: first, using the literature research method, collect the relevant policy information and related scientific research results, collate, summarize and summarize the current research and reality of home pension service. Secondly, using the method of investigation and research, we conducted structured interviews with 1200 old people in three communities, Sanjing Nanzhai, Changning District, Shanghai, Green Garden one Village and Jinju District, to obtain their basic status and current living conditions. Pension will and home pension service needs four aspects of information. Thirdly, the SPSS19.0 statistical software is used to analyze the samples, including descriptive statistics, interactive analysis, single factor statistics and so on. Finally, VENSIM system dynamics software is used to predict the demand, the number of service personnel and the future funding gap of the family pension service project in 2014-2050. This paper mainly has the following research results: first, the home pension service is the first choice, the main status of the home pension service is in line with the elderly pension wishes 59.4% of the elderly choose home pension. Second, the demand for old-age services is diversified, but life care, medical care and spiritual comfort are the three most basic needs of the elderly. Thirdly, it analyzes the influence of personal factors, economic factors and family factors on the old people's pension willingness, the demand for home pension service and the financial affordability. Fourth, this paper focuses on the simulation of demand, selects factors such as demand factors, economic factors, the number of elderly population and other factors to build a system dynamics model to predict the low, middle, and so on. The trend of development and change in the demand for basic services for the aged at home in the future under the three levels of high school demand, In the future, there will be three stages of development for the aged at home: the stage of rapid growth in demand 2014-2025, the stage of steady growth of demand at 2026-2042, and the stage of slow decline in demand growth (after 2043); in terms of specific service items, In the future, the projects with the greatest demand are door-to-door housework, chat and relief, door-to-door care and door-to-door care; in terms of human resources allocation, the demand for personnel in the future different service items is door-to-door housework, door-to-door care, At the financial supply level, the gap in home pension services will continue to widen in the next 30 years. Research has found that when state financial investment fluctuates in the range of 2 to 3 percent, When the financial input of home pension service accounts for 70-90% of the financial investment, it is more favorable to maintain the balance of home pension supply and demand. In order to achieve the sustainable development of home pension, the country is prepared ahead of time. First of all, the government should do a good job of laws, regulations, institutions, funds; community to do a good job of hardware and software construction; service teams to ensure stability and professionalism.
【学位授予单位】:上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2015
【分类号】:D669.6
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