“英国脱欧”将如何影响中国的“一带一路”战略——基于GTAP模型的分析

发布时间：2018-05-11 00:01

  本文选题：英国脱欧 + “一带一路”　； 参考：《国际经贸探索》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用GTAP模型对"英国脱欧"可能会对"一带一路"战略产生的影响进行了模拟分析。研究发现:"英国脱欧"对"一带一路"战略既有正面影响也有负面影响,并且这些影响随着英国与欧盟之间关税水平的上升而扩大。正面影响来自于"英国脱欧"会使中国和"一带一路"沿线非欧盟国家的经济发展受益,并增强中国与英国、欧盟及其他"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易联系;负面影响则主要是"英国脱欧"会使欧盟和英国的经济恶化,有损于其参与"一带一路"战略的能力。因此,中国既要防范英国和欧盟国家经济下滑给"一带一路"战略带来的不确定性风险,也要把握住"一带一路"沿线其它国家经济发展将从"英国脱欧"中受益的机会,提升对其贸易投资合作的规模和水平,助力其融入"一带一路"战略。
[Abstract]:GTAP model is used to simulate the possible impact of Brexit on Belt and Road strategy. The study found that Brexit had both positive and negative effects on the "Belt and Road" strategy, and that these effects increased with the rise of tariffs between the UK and the EU. The positive influence will benefit the economic development of China and non-EU countries along the Belt and Road, and strengthen China's trade ties with Britain, EU and other countries along the "Belt and Road". The downside is that Brexit will worsen the EU and UK economies and undermine their ability to participate in the Belt and Road strategy. Therefore, China should not only guard against the uncertain risks brought by the economic downturn of the UK and EU countries to the "Belt and Road" strategy, but also seize the opportunity for the economic development of other countries along the "Belt and Road" to benefit from the "Brexit from the EU". To enhance the scale and level of cooperation in trade and investment, to facilitate its integration into the "Belt and Road" strategy.
【作者单位】： 南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：江苏省哲学社会科学基金重点委托项目(16WTA003)
【分类号】：D856.1;F125
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本文编号：1871489