同盟信号、观众成本与中日、中菲海洋争端

发布时间：2018-05-12 08:56

  本文选题：同盟 + 信号博弈　； 参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年08期

【摘要】：在同盟理论中,不对称同盟与同盟困境等问题会影响同盟各方的选择。因此,为了判断美国及其盟友在面对中国崛起时的反应,作者应用三方不完全信息博弈中的信号博弈模型,分析中国、美国以及美国盟友的三方互动。在美国宣布"重返亚太"后,从美国的角度看,希望借助盟友的力量减缓中国崛起速度。而从美国盟国角度看,也希望借助中美矛盾从中渔利,因此美国盟友会猜测美国的真实动机究竟是坚定支持盟国的强硬行为还是仅仅利用盟国。此外,亚太各国是否采取强硬立场也部分取决于国内的观众成本,所以简单的经济外交或者外交谈判较难软化某些国家的立场。为了论证博弈模型,作者采用数据统计加以验证:根据历年来美国军售、各国在联合国分别对中国和美国的支持度、各国的观众成本、亚太各国与中国的双边关系、中国与各国的经贸往来等数据,构建了面板数据模型,回归结果能有力验证所提出的假设。随后,根据中日渔船相撞事件、安倍时期的钓鱼岛争端、中菲黄岩岛争端以及中菲南海仲裁案的案例分析验证了假设。随着美国"重返亚太",由于日本、美国等国的观众成本较高,在领土问题上若退让可能冒较大风险,其立场可能会趋于强硬,因此中国在崛起的过程中需要对危机加以管控。
[Abstract]:In alliance theory, asymmetric alliance and alliance dilemma will affect the choice of alliance parties. Therefore, in order to judge the reaction of the United States and its allies in the face of the rise of China, the author applies the signal game model in the tripartite incomplete information game to analyze the tripartite interaction among China, the United States and its allies. After the U.S. announcement of its return to the Asia-Pacific region, from a U.S. perspective, it hopes to use the power of its allies to slow the rise of China. From the point of view of the United States allies, they also hope to benefit from Sino-US conflicts. Therefore, the United States allies will speculate whether the real motive of the United States is to firmly support the hardline actions of the allies or just to use the allies. In addition, whether or not Asia-Pacific countries take a tough stance depends in part on the cost of domestic audiences, so simple economic diplomacy or diplomatic negotiations are less likely to soften some countries' positions. In order to demonstrate the game model, the author uses data statistics to verify it: according to the degree of support given by the United States to China and the United States at the United Nations over the years, the audience cost of each country, and the bilateral relations between Asia-Pacific countries and China, A panel data model is constructed based on the economic and trade data between China and other countries, and the regression results can verify the hypothesis. Subsequently, case studies on the collision between Chinese and Japanese fishing boats, the Diaoyu Islands dispute during Abe's period, the Sino-Philippine Huangyan Island dispute and the South China Sea arbitration case confirmed the hypothesis. As the United States "returns to the Asia-Pacific", with Japan, countries such as the United States having higher audience costs, and taking a bigger risk on territorial issues, their positions may become more hawkish, so China needs to manage the crisis as it rises.
【作者单位】： 清华大学国际关系学系;中国社会科学院美国研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中外关系数据库建设”(项目编号:15ZDA069);国家社会科学基金2017年度项目“南海争端中美国的战略定位与政策手段研究”(项目编号:17BGJ058)的资助
【分类号】：D815
，

本文编号：1877972