《巴黎协定》与特朗普政府的履约前景

发布时间：2018-05-28 02:38

  本文选题：《巴黎协定》 + 美国　； 参考：《气候变化研究进展》2017年05期

【摘要】：《巴黎协定》生效标志着全球气候治理进程从达约阶段转向履约阶段。但是,履约阶段并不意味着全球气候风险得到控制,反而面临新的挑战。本文从《巴黎协定》入手,分析了《巴黎协定》自身存在的不足,重点考察了美国的履约意愿,分析了特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》及其影响,探讨了未来美国的气候立场。研究发现,《巴黎协定》在减排力度、气候资金及遵约条款三方面存在先天不足,导致《巴黎协定》有效性仍取决于缔约方的履约意愿和履约能力。当前美国国内政局演变导致美国联邦政府气候政策出现倒退,有可能对《巴黎协定》缔约方的履约意愿和履约能力产生不良影响。但是,这种不良影响仅仅是短暂的。美国在国际格局中的地位变化以及美国业已成形的低碳转型,共同决定了特朗普气候政策并不会从根本上动摇《巴黎协定》。长期来看,美国对全球领导力的诉求、国内应对气候变化的内在动力以及来自外部的道义压力这三大因素势将促使美国在未来重新回归《巴黎协定》。
[Abstract]:The entry into force of the Paris Agreement marks a shift in the process of global climate governance from the treaty phase to the compliance phase. But the implementation phase does not mean that global climate risk is contained, but faces new challenges. Starting with the Paris Accord, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the Paris Accord itself, emphatically examines the willingness of the United States to fulfill its obligations, analyzes the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris Accord and its impact, and probes into the future United States' climate stand. It is found that the Paris Agreement has three inherent deficiencies in terms of emission reduction, climate finance and compliance provisions, resulting in the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement still depends on the parties' willingness to implement and their ability to comply. The current evolution of the domestic political situation in the United States has led to the retrogression of the climate policy of the United States Federal Government, which may have a negative impact on the willingness and ability of the parties to the Paris Agreement to fulfil their obligations. However, the adverse effects are only temporary. The changing position of the United States in the international arena and the low-carbon transition that has taken shape in the United States together determine that Trump's climate policy will not fundamentally destabilize the Paris Agreement. In the long run, America's demand for global leadership, the internal dynamics of domestic response to climate change, and moral pressure from outside will push the United States back to Paris in the future.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院美国研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院重大问题中外合作研究课题“中美欧应对气候变化措施、成效、合作前景研究”
【分类号】：D871.2;D996.9;P467
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本文编号：1944917