济南市人口老龄化趋势及养老模式优化

发布时间：2018-06-02 18:21

本文选题：济南市 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《山东师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：十九世纪七十年代法国率先成为老年型国家，一些欧美国家也陆续进入老年型国家的行列。近年来，我国的人口老龄化速度不断加快，人口老龄化问题正在成为中国各地区格外关心的问题。人口老龄化的发展对经济、社会等方面都会产生一定程度的影响。随着“单独”二胎政策的放开，人口结构的发展将进入新的阶段。济南市作为山东省省会城市，济南人口结构的发展显得格外重要。根据济南市第四次人口普查、第五次人口普查、第六次人口普查数据制作出的人口金字塔，由这三个人口年龄结构金字塔的形状变化可以得知，济南市人口年龄结构金字塔形状由下宽上窄的锥形逐渐的转变为塔中部宽塔底窄的收缩型。济南市人口年龄金字塔形状的演变反映出济南市人口老龄化程度在逐步加深。通过分析济南市第六次人口普查数据发现，不同区域老龄化程度差异明显，老人整体健康状况也存在差异。城乡之间的老人生活来源构成差异明显，在生活来源上乡村老人在养老中处在艰难境地。济南市老龄化已经表现出一些地域性的特点，也带来一些问题。通过运用模型，选取参数预测未来4个关键年份济南市人口年龄结构，并制作人口年龄结构金字塔。预测显示未来年份中，随着生育政策的变化，，0—14岁少儿组的人数和比重会逐渐增加，65岁以上老人的总数将逐步增多。随着时间的推移，现存适龄劳动力人口将逐渐的过渡为老年人口，老年人口总数会大幅增加，人口老龄化程度将进一步加深。老龄化程度的加深会使医疗、养老等方面面临巨大压力。根据问卷数据分析，不同年龄段、不同经济状况、不同健康状况的老人养老意愿存在差异。受地方传统观念的影响，被访问的老人多倾向于选择家庭养老，当家庭养老满足不了自己的养老需求时，老人们会根据自己的经济条件、身体健康状况、子女的赡养意愿等考虑选择居家养老或者机构养老。许多退休的知识分子更倾向于选择居家养老，在居家养老的基础上建立社区居家养老机构，相互帮扶，互助养老。通过调查发现，济南市的家庭养老模式存在着功能弱化、地域差异明显、经费不足等弊端。受传统观念以及资金缺乏的影响济南市机构养老的专业化和规范化水平较低。居家养老处在兴起初期，资金来源单一，覆盖面窄，服务水平有待提高。借鉴国外先进国家、地区成功的养老模式，结合济南市本地老龄化及养老模式的特点，综合考虑问卷中得出的老人的养老意愿，对济南市养老模式提出优化建议：巩固家庭养老意识，保证老有所依；发展多元化养老模式，提供多层次服务；创新养老模式；发展养老地产，建立老年社区；培养专业化服务人员，提高服务水平；增加财政和社会资金支持；完善相关法律制度。
[Abstract]:In the 1870s, France took the lead as a geriatric country, and some European and American countries entered the ranks of geriatric countries one after another. In recent years, the aging of the population in China is accelerating, and the aging of the population is becoming a special concern in all regions of China. The development of the aging population will have a certain degree of impact on the economic, social and other aspects. With the opening of the policy of "separate" two-child, the development of population structure will enter a new stage. Jinan as the capital city of Shandong Province, Jinan population structure development is particularly important. According to the fourth population census of Jinan, the fifth census, and the sixth census, the population pyramid produced by the data of the sixth census can be seen by the changes in the shape of the three age structure pyramids of the population. The pyramid shape of population age structure in Jinan has gradually changed from the conical shape of the lower width and the upper width to the narrow conical shape of the central tower. The evolution of population age pyramid reflects the gradual deepening of population aging in Jinan. By analyzing the data of the sixth population census in Jinan, it is found that there are obvious differences in the degree of aging in different regions, and there are also differences in the overall health status of the elderly. The difference between urban and rural elderly sources of life is obvious, the rural old people are in a difficult situation in the old-age care. Jinan aging has shown some regional characteristics, but also brought some problems. By using the model, the parameters are selected to predict the population age structure in Jinan in the next four key years, and the pyramid of population age structure is made. The forecast shows that the number and proportion of children aged 0-14 will gradually increase in the coming years, and the total number of over-65-year-olds will gradually increase. With the passage of time, the existing working-age labor force will gradually transition to the elderly population, the total number of the elderly population will increase significantly, and the degree of population aging will be further deepened. The deepening of aging will make medical care, pension and other aspects of great pressure. According to the questionnaire data analysis, there are differences in old age, economic status and health status. Under the influence of local traditional concepts, the old people interviewed tend to choose the family for the aged. When the family pension cannot meet their own needs for the aged, the old people will be healthy according to their own economic conditions. Children's willingness to support such considerations as home pension or institutional pension. Many retired intellectuals are more inclined to choose home for the aged, on the basis of home endowment, establish community home pension institutions, help each other, and support each other. Through the investigation, it is found that the family pension model in Jinan has some disadvantages, such as weak function, obvious regional difference, insufficient funds and so on. Influenced by traditional concept and lack of funds, the specialization and standardization of institutional pension in Jinan is low. At the beginning of the family pension service, the source of funds is single, the coverage is narrow, and the service level needs to be improved. Drawing lessons from the successful pension model of advanced countries and regions abroad and combining the characteristics of local aging and old-age support model in Jinan, the paper synthetically considers the old people's pension intention obtained from the questionnaire. Some suggestions are put forward to optimize the pension model in Jinan: to consolidate the sense of family old-age support, to ensure that there is a basis for old age; to develop a diversified pension model, to provide multi-level services; to innovate the old-age model; to develop old-age real estate; to establish a community for the elderly; Train professional service personnel, improve service level, increase financial and social financial support, and improve the relevant legal system.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D669.6

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