外交关系与人民币离岸市场的发展

发布时间：2018-06-03 06:04

  本文选题：人民币国际化 + 离岸市场　； 参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年09期

【摘要】：2009年人民币国际化拉开序幕以来,人民币的离岸金融市场取得了蓬勃的发展,并在中国资本项目尚未完全开放的情况下对人民币增强国际使用起到了重要的推动作用。人民币的离岸市场主要集中在那些具有重要影响的国际金融中心,但是又与国际金融中心的地位并不完全一致。面对不同人民币离岸市场的发育程度与单纯的市场逻辑不太匹配的现实情况,作者试图从外交关系也即政府间关系的角度,既包括传统的政治外交关系,也包括新兴的经济外交关系,来解释人民币离岸市场的发展逻辑。通过对2016年35个人民币离岸市场横截面数据的计量分析以及对英国和美国、日本和新加坡这两组案例的求异定性分析,作者发现人民币离岸市场的发展不完全是一个自然的市场现象,政府间外交关系作为一种政治力量影响着人民币离岸市场的发展。政府在政治和经济领域中合作的推进能够为市场行为体的相关货币行为提供重要激励,而政府间合作的滞后则会钳制人民币离岸市场的发展。不过,市场的发展也可以反过来倒逼政府间政治和经济外交的改善。
[Abstract]:Since the internationalization of RMB began in 2009, the offshore financial market of RMB has made vigorous development, and has played an important role in promoting the international use of RMB under the condition that China's capital account has not been fully opened. The offshore market for the yuan is concentrated in important international financial centres, but is not exactly in line with the status of international financial centres. In the face of the fact that the development degree of different RMB offshore market does not match the pure market logic, the author tries to include the traditional political diplomatic relationship from the perspective of diplomatic relations, that is, intergovernmental relations. It also includes emerging economic and diplomatic relations to explain the logic of the yuan's offshore market. Through the econometric analysis of 35 cross-section data of the offshore market in 2016 and the qualitative analysis of the two groups of cases, the United Kingdom and the United States, Japan and Singapore, The author finds that the development of RMB offshore market is not entirely a natural market phenomenon, and the inter-governmental diplomatic relations, as a political force, influence the development of RMB offshore market. The promotion of government cooperation in the political and economic fields can provide an important incentive for the relevant monetary behavior of market actors, while the lag of intergovernmental cooperation will restrain the development of the offshore market of RMB. But the development of markets could in turn force improvements in intergovernmental political and economic diplomacy.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学国际关系学院;中国人民银行营业管理部;
【基金】：中国人民大学2016—2019年明德研究品牌计划“中国经济外交的理论与实践”(项目编号:14XNJ006)的部分成果 北京大学国际战略研究院2016年度课题“人民币崛起的地缘版图——打造人民币国际化的货币支点国家”的资助
【分类号】：D820;F832.6
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本文编号：1971746