adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型应用于老年人养老意愿影响因素研究的探讨

发布时间：2018-06-18 07:52

本文选题：adaptive + LASSO　；参考：《中国卫生统计》2017年01期

【摘要】：目的探讨adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型在老年人养老意愿影响因素研究中的应用。方法基于厦门市60岁及以上老年人口的多阶段整群抽样调查数据,建立老年人养老意愿影响因素的adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型,通过交叉验证法选择模型中的调和参数λ;通过与全变量和逐步logistic回归结果的比较,探讨adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型的优势。结果共纳入1244名老年人,其养老意愿为家庭养老、社区居家养老和机构养老的比例分别为70.0%、21.1%和8.9%。交叉验证法选择的λ为0.018;此时adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型纳入的自变量为居住地、年龄、婚姻状况、文化程度、子女数、每月退休金收入、公费医疗和住院情况;BIC和AIC分别为1931、1888,均低于全变量logistic回归(2077、1923)和逐步logistic回归(2025、1912)。结论 adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型可用于老年人养老意愿影响因素研究。老年人的养老意愿受多个因素影响。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application of adaptive LASSO logistic regression model in the study of the influencing factors of elderly pension willingness. Methods based on the multi-stage cluster sampling data of the elderly aged 60 years and over in Xiamen, the adaptive LASSO logistic regression model was established. The harmonic parameter 位 in the model is selected by cross-validation method, and the advantages of the adaptive so logistic regression model are discussed by comparing with the results of total variable and stepwise logistic regression. Results A total of 1244 elderly people were included, and their pension intention was family pension. The proportion of community home pension and institutional old-age care was 70.021% and 8.9% respectively. At this time, the independent variables included in the adaptive so logistic regression model are residence, age, marital status, education, number of children, monthly pension income, etc. The BIC and AIC of public medical treatment and hospitalization were 1931 ~ 1888, respectively, which were lower than that of total variable logistic regression (2077 / 1923) and stepwise logistic regression (2025 / 1912). Conclusion adaptive LASSO logistic regression model can be used to study the influencing factors of elderly pension willingness. The old people's willingness to care for the aged is influenced by many factors.
【作者单位】：厦门大学公共卫生学院;卫生技术评估福建省高校重点实验室;
【基金】：厦门大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2015Y0827)
【分类号】：R195;D669.6

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