生育成本外部化与生育的“公地悲剧”——基于中国家庭养老体制的分析

发布时间：2018-06-27 00:09

  本文选题：生育成本 + 外部化　； 参考：《财经问题研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：在中国城乡中低收入家庭较多、养老体系不完善、养老的社会化和市场化水平不高,特别是广大农村地区主要依赖家庭养老的情况下,本文通过对生育行为的外部性进行界定、分析和推导得出以下结论:养老方式依赖家庭内部转移支付和政府承担抚养子女成本,二者导致的成本外部化会促使家庭决策下生育子女数量的增加,进而造成生育的"公地悲剧"。笔者使用2012年国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口监测数据进行实证检验,旨在为中国的生育政策改革提供新的观察视角,推动依赖子女转移支付的农村地区社会养老体系进一步完善,提高新型农村社会养老保险保障水平,改变家庭养老的传统观念,以期有利于抵消政府承担生育成本导致的负外部性影响,防止生育政策放松后可能出现的农村生育率反弹和人口结构恶化。
[Abstract]:Under the situation that there are more low- and middle-income families in urban and rural areas in China, the pension system is not perfect, the socialization and marketization of old-age support is not high, especially in the vast rural areas, which mainly rely on the family for the aged, this paper defines the externality of fertility behavior. The conclusions are as follows: the old-age mode depends on the transfer payment within the family and the government bears the cost of raising children. The externalization of the cost will promote the increase of the number of children in the family decision-making. Thus causing the birth of the "tragedy of the Commons." In order to provide a new perspective for the reform of China's fertility policy, the author uses the monitoring data of the floating population of the National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2012 to conduct an empirical test. To promote the further improvement of the social pension system in rural areas, which depends on the transfer payment of children, to improve the security level of the new rural social old-age insurance, and to change the traditional concept of family old-age care. It is expected to offset the negative externalities caused by the government bearing reproductive costs and prevent the rural fertility rebound and population structure deterioration after the relaxation of fertility policy.
【作者单位】： 山东大学经济研究院;
【分类号】：D669.6
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本文编号：2071932