我国人口老龄化加速发展对城市化发展速度的影响

发布时间：2018-07-05 16:06

  本文选题：人口老龄化 + 城市化　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年06期

【摘要】：中国的城市化水平在过去的20余年里以年均超过一个百分点的速度提升,然而在城市化主要依靠人口乡城迁移推动的模式下,人口年龄结构老化对城市化发展的影响日渐显现。文章通过年龄移算法描述了乡城人口迁移流动的年龄模式,发现我国农村人口乡城迁移概率随年龄的分布呈现"中间大,两头小"的特征。然后,文章分析了此种年龄模式形成的原因,认为制度是影响乡城迁移年龄模式的决定性因素,制度变迁的缓慢性以及路径依赖决定了短期内我国人口乡城迁移年龄模式的稳定性。基于此,文章预测了人口老龄化对未来中国人口城市化发展的影响,得出的基本结论是,未来中国城市化发展的水平提高将进入一个相对平缓的时期,年度城市化水平的提升将显著低于过去一个时期,对未来10-20年中国城市化发展水平的预期未可过于乐观。针对这一结论,文章建议在未来的城市化过程中应完善社会融入机制和提升城市化质量。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, the level of urbanization in China has increased at an average annual rate of more than one percentage point. However, under the model that urbanization mainly depends on the migration of the rural population, the aging of the age structure of the population has become more and more important to the development of urbanization. This paper describes the age pattern of rural population migration by age shift algorithm, and finds out that the migration probability of rural population in our country shows the characteristics of "large middle and small at both ends" with the distribution of age. Then, the paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of this age model, and thinks that the system is the decisive factor to affect the age pattern of rural migration. The slowness of institutional change and path dependence determine the stability of the population migration age model in the short term. Based on this, the paper predicts the impact of population aging on the future urbanization development of China, and draws the basic conclusion that the level of urbanization development in China will enter a relatively gentle period in the future. The annual increase in urbanization will be significantly lower than in the past, and expectations of China's urbanization over the next 10-20 years are not overly optimistic. In view of this conclusion, the paper suggests that the mechanism of social integration and the quality of urbanization should be improved in the process of urbanization in the future.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重大项目“湖北‘黄金十年’经济安全评价及防控策略研究”(批准号:14ZD001)
【分类号】：D669.6
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本文编号：2100828