特朗普政府对华“挂钩”政策探析
发布时间：2018-07-25 06:15
【摘要】：特朗普政府执政以来,中美关系实现了平稳过渡。在备受瞩目的中美元首海湖庄园会晤期间,双方以构建新的高层对话机制为依托,以在经贸及朝核等重要议题领域达成合作共识为契机,推动中美关系迈入了一个新阶段。不难看出,特朗普政府的对华外交呈现出鲜明的"交易型"特征,其问题导向性和去意识形态化的战略思维,一方面使中美两国可以更为务实地应对双边关系中的挑战,另一方面也引发了不少担忧,特别是一些分析认为特朗普政府的对华政策暗含不确定性和风险。文章认为,特朗普政府的对华政策实质上反映出一种在美国外交中兼具思想源流与历史经验的"挂钩"政策,其核心是与主要战略竞争者在关乎美国核心利益的重要战略领域进行全方位协调与合作,并将双方在某一领域的合作同其他领域的合作以至于双边关系整体进行挂钩,从而在约束对方行为的同时维护美国的利益。从思想源流看,该政策继承了汉密尔顿式的现实主义传统,将国家利益而非意识形态作为对外战略立足点。从历史经验看,该政策往往是在美国处于"双重弱势"地位——美国国际战略地位处于弱势、总统国内政治地位处于弱势——之时,面对主要战略竞争者的优先选择。对于"挂钩"政策的理论与历史分析,可以为我们理解当今美国的对华战略带来不少现实启发,并为中国制定应对策略提供可靠的逻辑线索。
[Abstract]:Since the Trump administration came to power, there has been a smooth transition between China and the United States. During the high-profile meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States, the two sides took the establishment of a new high-level dialogue mechanism as the basis, and reached a consensus on cooperation in the fields of trade, economy, and the DPRK's nuclear program as an opportunity to push Sino-US relations into a new stage. It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's diplomacy with China has a distinctive "transactional" characteristic, and its problem-oriented and deideological strategic thinking, on the one hand, enables China and the United States to deal more pragmatically with the challenges in bilateral relations. On the other hand, concerns have been raised, especially with some analysts suggesting that the Trump administration's China policy implies uncertainty and risk. The article holds that the Trump administration's China policy reflects in essence a policy of "linking" between the source of thought and historical experience in American diplomacy. Its core is to coordinate and cooperate in all directions with major strategic competitors in important strategic areas that concern the core interests of the United States, and to link their cooperation in one field with cooperation in other fields and even with bilateral relations as a whole. In order to restrain the behavior of the other side while safeguarding the interests of the United States. From the perspective of ideological origin, the policy inherits the tradition of Hamilton realism and regards national interests rather than ideology as its foreign strategic foothold. From the historical experience, this policy is often the first choice to face the main strategic competitors when the United States is in the "double weak" position, the American international strategic position is in the weak position and the president's domestic political position is in the weak position. The theoretical and historical analysis of the "hook" policy can bring us a lot of practical inspiration to understand the current American strategy towards China and provide a reliable logical clue for China to formulate its coping strategy.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学美国研究中心;
【基金】：笔者主持的2017年度上海市浦江人才计划项目“冷战后美国对外战略演化的国内动因研究”(项目编号:17PGC014)的阶段成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2
本文编号：2142886
[Abstract]:Since the Trump administration came to power, there has been a smooth transition between China and the United States. During the high-profile meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States, the two sides took the establishment of a new high-level dialogue mechanism as the basis, and reached a consensus on cooperation in the fields of trade, economy, and the DPRK's nuclear program as an opportunity to push Sino-US relations into a new stage. It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's diplomacy with China has a distinctive "transactional" characteristic, and its problem-oriented and deideological strategic thinking, on the one hand, enables China and the United States to deal more pragmatically with the challenges in bilateral relations. On the other hand, concerns have been raised, especially with some analysts suggesting that the Trump administration's China policy implies uncertainty and risk. The article holds that the Trump administration's China policy reflects in essence a policy of "linking" between the source of thought and historical experience in American diplomacy. Its core is to coordinate and cooperate in all directions with major strategic competitors in important strategic areas that concern the core interests of the United States, and to link their cooperation in one field with cooperation in other fields and even with bilateral relations as a whole. In order to restrain the behavior of the other side while safeguarding the interests of the United States. From the perspective of ideological origin, the policy inherits the tradition of Hamilton realism and regards national interests rather than ideology as its foreign strategic foothold. From the historical experience, this policy is often the first choice to face the main strategic competitors when the United States is in the "double weak" position, the American international strategic position is in the weak position and the president's domestic political position is in the weak position. The theoretical and historical analysis of the "hook" policy can bring us a lot of practical inspiration to understand the current American strategy towards China and provide a reliable logical clue for China to formulate its coping strategy.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学美国研究中心;
【基金】：笔者主持的2017年度上海市浦江人才计划项目“冷战后美国对外战略演化的国内动因研究”(项目编号:17PGC014)的阶段成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2
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