中国城乡居民养老居住意愿的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-19 19:23

【摘要】：随着生育率的持续下降和平均预期寿命的不断延长,中国人口老龄化程度正在逐渐加深。老龄化的核心问题是养老问题,养老模式主要通过特定的居住安排来表现,而中老年人的养老居住意愿又反映了其对养老模式的需求,满足中老年人的养老需求对增加其获得感和幸福感,使其健康养老具有重要影响。基于我国严峻的养老现实和城乡二元结构这一社会特征,本文充分考虑了收入、养老制度以及我国以家庭养老为主的相应传统文化等多方面因素,引入代际支持变量。利用2011年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)全国基线调查数据和2013年的追踪调查数据,根据问卷设计,分别从假设老年人有配偶和没有配偶两种情况出发,采用面板二元Logit模型,研究我国农村和城镇的中老年人养老居住意愿及其影响因素,并在研究中采用秩分析法将所需多分类有序变量进行了量化。本文的实证分析发现:(1)在我国城乡中老年人中,家庭养老仍是农村中老年人理想的养老模式;有配偶的城镇中老年人选择与其子女同住的概率较低,而没有配偶的城镇中老年人选择与子女同住的概率相对较高。(2)我国城乡中老年人选择与子女同住的概率,随着其年龄的增加,呈现先下降后增长的趋势,且农村的中老年人选择和子女同住的概率从降低到增加的拐点发生在70岁左右;而城镇中,在没有配偶的情况下拐点发生在70岁左右,有配偶的情况下拐点发生在75岁左右。(3)中老年人的性别、受教育水平、健康状况、子女特征、经济收入、代际支持等变量对中老年人的养老居住意愿的影响存在城乡差异性,且在假设有配偶和假设没有配偶的情况下对中老年人的养老居住意愿影响不同。
[Abstract]:As fertility continues to fall and average life expectancy continues to grow, China's aging population is deepening. The core problem of aging is the old-age problem, the old-age model is mainly expressed by specific living arrangements, and the middle-aged and elderly people's desire to live for the aged reflects their demand for the old-age model. Meeting the needs of the aged has an important effect on increasing their sense of acquisition and well-being and making them healthy for the aged. Based on the austere reality of the aged and the dual structure of the urban and rural areas, this paper fully considers the income, the pension system and the corresponding traditional culture, which is based on the family old-age support, and introduces intergenerational support variables. Using the (CHARLS) national baseline survey data of 2011 China Health and Old-age tracking Survey and the data of 2013 tracking Survey, according to the questionnaire design, the panel dual Logit model was adopted based on the assumption that the elderly had spouses and no spouse. This paper studies the rural and urban old-age pension living willingness and its influencing factors, and quantifies the required multi-classification and ordered variables by rank analysis in the study. The empirical analysis of this paper finds that: (1) among the middle and old people in urban and rural areas, the family pension is still the ideal mode for the elderly in rural areas, and the probability of the middle-aged and elderly people with spouses choosing to live with their children is low. The probability of middle and old people living with their children in cities without spouses is relatively high. (2) with the increase of age, the probability of choosing to live with their children in urban and rural areas in China is decreasing first and then increasing. And in rural areas, the probability of choosing to live with their children decreased from about 70 to the increasing inflection point, while in urban areas, the inflexion occurred at about 70 when there was no spouse. In the case of spouse, the inflection point occurs around 75 years old. (3) the influence of gender, education level, health status, child characteristics, economic income, intergenerational support and other variables on old-age living willingness of middle-aged and old people is different between urban and rural areas. Moreover, the effects of supposing a spouse and no spouse on the aging willingness of the middle-aged and the elderly are different.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D669.6

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