养老机构人力资源供需的仿真研究

发布时间：2018-08-25 07:32

【摘要】：随着人口老龄化的加剧,养老问题的重要性日益凸显,将会有越来越多的老年人入住到养老机构中,这就导致养老机构对人力资源的需求大大增加。但由于工资待遇低、工作量大及社会观念等原因,养老机构的人力资源供给远远不足,这种供需矛盾严重影响我国养老机构的发展,因此,对我国养老机构进行人力资源的供给与需求研究,对促进我国养老机构的可持续发展具有重要作用。本文依据人力资源激励-保健理论、期望理论及马斯洛需求理论等相关理论,采用文献研究法、统计学方法和系统动力学方法进行研究。首先,运用文献研究法,搜集整理养老机构及人力资源领域的相关研究成果,并总结我国目前养老机构人力资源现状;其次,运用SPSS统计软件对系统内供给和需求两方面的因素进行统计分析及参数估计;最后,运用VENSIM系统动力学软件通过因果关系图、流图和结构方程的建立对2013-2045年养老机构人力资源的供给和需求进行了预测分析。通过系统动力学模型的构建仿真,得出我国养老机构人力资源供需比未来变化趋势:先增加后减小,最大值0.9265。然后对养老机构入住比例、服务人员配置比例、工资增长率、养老服务财政支出比例等参数进行情景分析和敏感度分析,研究这些因素对人力资源供需的影响作用。最后根据分析结果提出增加政府财政投入、构建专业医护人才培养体系、开发志愿者人力资源等对策建议。本研究主要有两点创新:一是内容的创新,即对我国养老机构人力资源体系进行供给和需求两方面多因素研究;二是方法的创新,即运用系统动力学方法对养老机构人力资源供需体系进行结构仿真,测算供需平衡状态下的人力资源供给和需求,并对系统内的关键参数进行情景分析和敏感度分析。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of the aging of the population, the importance of the pension problem is becoming increasingly prominent, more and more elderly people will move into the pension institutions, which leads to a great increase in the demand for human resources in pension institutions. However, due to the low wage, heavy workload and social concept, the supply of human resources in pension institutions is far from enough. This contradiction of supply and demand seriously affects the development of pension institutions in China. It is important to study the supply and demand of human resources for the aged institutions in China to promote the sustainable development of the pension institutions in China. Based on the theory of human resource motivation-health care, expectation theory and Maslow's demand theory, this paper uses literature research method, statistical method and system dynamics method to study. First of all, using the method of literature research, collect and organize the related research results in the field of pension institutions and human resources, and summarize the current situation of human resources of pension institutions in China; secondly, The SPSS statistical software is used to analyze the supply and demand factors in the system and to estimate the parameters. Finally, the VENSIM system dynamics software is used to use the causality diagram. The establishment of flow chart and structural equation is used to forecast the supply and demand of human resources in pension institutions in 2013-2045. Based on the simulation of system dynamics model, the trend of human resource supply and demand in China's pension institutions is obtained: first increasing and then decreasing, the maximum 0.9265. Then the paper makes a situational analysis and sensitivity analysis on the factors such as the occupancy ratio of pension institutions, the proportion of service personnel, the rate of salary growth, the proportion of financial expenditure of old-age services, and so on, and studies the effect of these factors on the supply and demand of human resources. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as increasing the government financial input, constructing the training system of professional medical and nursing personnel, and developing human resources of volunteers. There are two main innovations in this study: one is the innovation of content, that is, the supply and demand of human resources system of pension institutions in China are studied, the other is the innovation of methods. The system dynamics method is used to simulate the supply and demand system of human resources in pension institutions, to calculate the supply and demand of human resources under the condition of balance of supply and demand, and to analyze the situation and sensitivity of the key parameters in the system.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D669.6

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