2030年的国际格局前瞻:变数与不变

发布时间：2018-09-19 17:30

【摘要】：2030年的大国关系将处于不确定、不稳定、不安全的重组状态,并向多极化、扁平化的方向发展。美国仍然是超级强国,中国的崛起不可阻挡。至于中国是不是超级大国,可能会存在争议,但至少"准超级大国"地位是可以确定的。俄罗斯尽管有短板,但仍将是一支举足轻重的地缘战略力量。欧盟和日本的地位可能下降,但绝不意味从此甘心自动退出,没有东山再起的机会和努力。作为金砖国家,印度地位会上升,但能否成为一极,还是未定之天。巴西将可能成为美国在拉美的主要竞争对手。从大国关系来看,2030年,比起中美关系,中俄关系相对确定;比起中日关系,中欧关系相对确定;比起美俄关系,美欧关系比较确定。
[Abstract]:The United States is still a superpower, and China's rise is irresistible. As for whether China is a superpower, there may be controversy, but at least the status of a "quasi-superpower" can be determined. The position of the EU and Japan may decline, but it does not mean that they will voluntarily withdraw from the EU without the opportunity and effort to make a comeback. As a BRICS country, India's status will rise, but it is still uncertain whether it will become a pole. Brazil may become the dominant country in Latin America. From the perspective of big power relations, in 2030, Sino-Russian relations are relatively definite compared with Sino-US relations; Sino-European relations are relatively definite compared with Sino-Japanese relations; and Sino-European relations are relatively definite compared with Sino-Russian relations.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学政府管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“丝绸之路经济带框架下的中俄全面合作研究”,项目批准号为16ZDA040 一般项目“丝绸之路经济带与欧亚联盟关系研究”的阶段性成果,项目批准号为14BGJ039
【分类号】：D81

【相似文献】