缅甸军政府民主转型原因研究
发布时间：2018-10-12 09:09
【摘要】：二十世纪中后期世界政治发展的显著特征是,全球30多个国家开始由极权或威权向民主转变,即亨廷顿描述的第三波。与我国西南边陲接壤的缅甸也不例外,出现多起要求民主化、反对军政府的抗议示威。然而并没有改变现状,而是军队出面平息事态建立了新的军政府。2008年制订了新的宪法,2010年举行最大规模的多党选举,其后军政府向吴登盛为总统的新政府移交权力,开启了新政治经济社会改革。2015年,全国民主联盟的吴丁觉赢得了新宪法施行后第一次大选。2016年,作为50多年军人统治后的第一位民选总统,吴丁觉上台执政,这是缅甸漫长民主之路的标志性一步。回首独立之后的缅甸政治发展史,民主之路可谓漫长曲折。短暂的议会民主草草收尾,而后的历史由新旧两个军政府书写。缅甸这个发展中的小国能最终走到这一步也是实属不易。由此引人深思,缅甸经由军政府统治半个多世纪缘何还能开启民主转型之路并最终完成?学界对此已有一定的研究。梳理已有的文献资料,国内外的研究要么强调转型的内部原因,要么强调转型的外部干预,均是从不同侧面的描述和分析来探讨其转型的原因。本人尝试在前人研究的基础之上,引入政治机遇结构理论;从各个要素出发关照缅甸政治社会的现实因素,从而总结出缅甸军政府的民主转型在于其特殊的政治机遇结构因素。政权内外多个中心、体制架构有限封闭、政治结盟的不稳定、挑战者获得支持者以及军政府的适时推进。各政治机遇的要素共同作用于缅甸军政府,民主转型才能重新开启并逐步推进。论文分为五大部分。第一部分是导论:通过梳理国内外文献资料,作为开展研究的理论前提,并对军政府与威权体制、民主化与民主转型和政治机遇结构理论的概念进行界定。第二部分概述了缅甸军政府民主转型之前的历史背景,并对缅甸独立后的历史分期进行简要分析。第三部分主要是描述转型过程中的政治力量,概述了军人集团、民主势力和少数民族武装组织三大政治力量。第四部分主要阐述了军政府转型后的政治形势:面临威权政体的遗留问题,文官政府必须进行经济改革谋求社会发展,以此应对民主巩固期的种种挑战。第五部分是论文的结尾,在综合分析缅甸军政府转型前的背景、转型中的博弈和转型后的形势基础上,得出缅甸军政府民主转型原因在于政治机遇机构因素,并总结了转型进程的特点。
[Abstract]:The remarkable characteristic of the world political development in the middle and late twentieth century is that more than 30 countries in the world began to change from totalitarianism or authoritarianism to democracy, which is the third wave described by Huntington. Myanmar, which borders on the southwest border of China, is no exception. There have been many protests against the junta. But instead of changing the status quo, the military came forward to calm the situation and set up a new military junta. A new constitution was enacted in 2008, the largest multi-party election was held in 2010, and the junta handed over power to the new government of President Thein Sein. The new political, economic and social reforms have been launched. In 2015, Wu Dinghue of the National League for Democracy won the first general election since the implementation of the new Constitution. In 2016, as the first elected president after more than 50 years of military rule, Wu came to power. This is a landmark step on Myanmar's long road to democracy. Looking back on the history of Myanmar's political development after independence, the road to democracy can be described as long and tortuous. A brief parliamentary democracy was curtailed, and the history was written by the old and the new military junta. It is not easy for a small developing country to finally get there. So it makes people wonder why Myanmar has been ruled by a military government for more than half a century so that it can open the way to democratic transformation and finally complete it. There has been some research on this in academic circles. Combing the existing literature, domestic and foreign studies either emphasize the internal reasons of the transition, or emphasize the external intervention of the transition, all from different aspects of the description and analysis to explore the reasons for its transformation. On the basis of previous studies, I try to introduce the theory of political opportunity structure, and consider the realistic factors of Myanmar political society from each factor, and conclude that the democratic transformation of Myanmar military government lies in its special political opportunity structure factor. Many centers inside and outside the regime, limited institutional structure, unstable political alliance, supporters of challengers and timely advance of the junta. The elements of political opportunity work together in Burma's military junta before democratic transition can be restarted and gradually pushed forward. The paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction: by combing the domestic and foreign literature, as the theoretical premise of the research, and defining the concepts of military government and authoritarian system, democratization and democratic transformation and political opportunity structure theory. The second part summarizes the historical background of Burma's military government before the democratic transition, and briefly analyzes the historical stages after Myanmar's independence. The third part mainly describes the political forces in the process of transformation, and outlines the three political forces: the military group, the democratic forces and the armed groups of ethnic minorities. The fourth part mainly expounds the political situation after the military junta's transformation: in the face of the legacy of the authoritarian regime, the civil government must carry out economic reform and seek social development in order to meet the challenges in the period of consolidation of democracy. The fifth part is the end of the paper, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the background before the transition of the military junta in Myanmar, the game in the transition and the situation after the transition, it is concluded that the reason for the democratic transition of the military junta of Myanmar lies in the political opportunity institutional factor. The characteristics of the transition process are summarized.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D733.7
，
本文编号：2265563
[Abstract]:The remarkable characteristic of the world political development in the middle and late twentieth century is that more than 30 countries in the world began to change from totalitarianism or authoritarianism to democracy, which is the third wave described by Huntington. Myanmar, which borders on the southwest border of China, is no exception. There have been many protests against the junta. But instead of changing the status quo, the military came forward to calm the situation and set up a new military junta. A new constitution was enacted in 2008, the largest multi-party election was held in 2010, and the junta handed over power to the new government of President Thein Sein. The new political, economic and social reforms have been launched. In 2015, Wu Dinghue of the National League for Democracy won the first general election since the implementation of the new Constitution. In 2016, as the first elected president after more than 50 years of military rule, Wu came to power. This is a landmark step on Myanmar's long road to democracy. Looking back on the history of Myanmar's political development after independence, the road to democracy can be described as long and tortuous. A brief parliamentary democracy was curtailed, and the history was written by the old and the new military junta. It is not easy for a small developing country to finally get there. So it makes people wonder why Myanmar has been ruled by a military government for more than half a century so that it can open the way to democratic transformation and finally complete it. There has been some research on this in academic circles. Combing the existing literature, domestic and foreign studies either emphasize the internal reasons of the transition, or emphasize the external intervention of the transition, all from different aspects of the description and analysis to explore the reasons for its transformation. On the basis of previous studies, I try to introduce the theory of political opportunity structure, and consider the realistic factors of Myanmar political society from each factor, and conclude that the democratic transformation of Myanmar military government lies in its special political opportunity structure factor. Many centers inside and outside the regime, limited institutional structure, unstable political alliance, supporters of challengers and timely advance of the junta. The elements of political opportunity work together in Burma's military junta before democratic transition can be restarted and gradually pushed forward. The paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction: by combing the domestic and foreign literature, as the theoretical premise of the research, and defining the concepts of military government and authoritarian system, democratization and democratic transformation and political opportunity structure theory. The second part summarizes the historical background of Burma's military government before the democratic transition, and briefly analyzes the historical stages after Myanmar's independence. The third part mainly describes the political forces in the process of transformation, and outlines the three political forces: the military group, the democratic forces and the armed groups of ethnic minorities. The fourth part mainly expounds the political situation after the military junta's transformation: in the face of the legacy of the authoritarian regime, the civil government must carry out economic reform and seek social development in order to meet the challenges in the period of consolidation of democracy. The fifth part is the end of the paper, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the background before the transition of the military junta in Myanmar, the game in the transition and the situation after the transition, it is concluded that the reason for the democratic transition of the military junta of Myanmar lies in the political opportunity institutional factor. The characteristics of the transition process are summarized.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D733.7
，
本文编号：2265563
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