人口老龄化对房价影响的区域异质性研究——基于全国31个省份面板数据的实证分析
发布时间：2018-12-28 14:24
【摘要】：在我国人口老龄化程度日益提高的背景下,研究人口老龄化对房价的影响不仅迫切而且重要。根据经济发展水平不同,把我国31个省份划分为发达地区、次发达地区和欠发达地区3个区域,运用2000—2014年的省级面板数据进行实证分析后发现:从全国层面看,人口老龄化是影响房价变动的一个重要影响因素;从区域层面看,人口老龄化对房价的影响存在着显著的差异,即发达地区人口老龄化与房价有显著的负相关性,次发达地区人口老龄化与房价有较弱的负相关性,而欠发达地区人口老龄化与房价有显著的正相关性;此外,不同区域影响房价的其他因素也存在显著的差异。因此,为更好地应对人口老龄化对我国房地产市场的冲击,促进我国房地产市场健康稳定发展,需要进一步完善我国的人口政策,促进地方经济的持续发展,使地方政府在稳定房地产市场方面发挥更大的作用。
[Abstract]:Under the background of increasing population aging in China, it is not only urgent but also important to study the effect of population aging on house price. According to the different level of economic development, 31 provinces in China are divided into three regions: developed region, sub-developed region and underdeveloped region. The empirical analysis of provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 shows that: from the national level, The aging of population is an important factor that affects the change of house price. At the regional level, there are significant differences in the impact of population aging on house prices, that is, there is a significant negative correlation between population aging and house prices in developed regions, and a weak negative correlation between population aging and house prices in sub-developed regions. However, there is a significant positive correlation between the aging population and house prices in the less developed areas. In addition, there are also significant differences in other factors affecting housing prices in different regions. Therefore, in order to better cope with the impact of population aging on our real estate market and promote the healthy and stable development of our real estate market, it is necessary to further improve our population policy and promote the sustainable development of local economy. So that local governments in stabilizing the real estate market play a greater role.
【作者单位】： 华东师范大学经济与管理学部工商管理学院房地产系;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“新型城镇化背景下的住房保障体系研究”(项目编号:13CJY040) 上海市人民政府决策咨询研究课题“上海住房保障体系面临的问题与对策研究”(项目编号:2016-GZ-04)
【分类号】：D669.6;F299.23
本文编号：2394065
[Abstract]:Under the background of increasing population aging in China, it is not only urgent but also important to study the effect of population aging on house price. According to the different level of economic development, 31 provinces in China are divided into three regions: developed region, sub-developed region and underdeveloped region. The empirical analysis of provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 shows that: from the national level, The aging of population is an important factor that affects the change of house price. At the regional level, there are significant differences in the impact of population aging on house prices, that is, there is a significant negative correlation between population aging and house prices in developed regions, and a weak negative correlation between population aging and house prices in sub-developed regions. However, there is a significant positive correlation between the aging population and house prices in the less developed areas. In addition, there are also significant differences in other factors affecting housing prices in different regions. Therefore, in order to better cope with the impact of population aging on our real estate market and promote the healthy and stable development of our real estate market, it is necessary to further improve our population policy and promote the sustainable development of local economy. So that local governments in stabilizing the real estate market play a greater role.
【作者单位】： 华东师范大学经济与管理学部工商管理学院房地产系;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“新型城镇化背景下的住房保障体系研究”(项目编号:13CJY040) 上海市人民政府决策咨询研究课题“上海住房保障体系面临的问题与对策研究”(项目编号:2016-GZ-04)
【分类号】：D669.6;F299.23
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