“四力”博弈下的新南向政策问题研究
发布时间：2019-08-05 21:16
【摘要】：蔡英文当局拒不承认"九二共识"给岛内经济特别是台商对外投资带来莫大的制约,加上所谓的"南海仲裁"对东南亚区域一体化产生的影响,南海问题的国际化倾向十分显著。面对复杂多变的区域发展形势,为了减低对大陆的所谓"深度依赖",民进党再次推出了新南向政策。在"南海时代"一体化背景下,新南向是"四力博弈"的综合结果。本文通过对影响新南向政策的四股力量,即台湾当局的推力,东南亚的拉力、大陆的吸力以及台商的内力结合数学模型进行综合分析发现:台湾当局的推力明显不足,东南亚国家的拉力有限,而大陆的吸力强劲,台商在基于市场化规律基础上的投资选择内力恒定。企图绕开大陆的"新南向政策"与一体化背景背道而驰,难达预期目的。
[Abstract]:Tsai ing-wen's refusal to recognize the "1992 consensus" has brought great constraints to the island's economy, especially Taiwan businessmen's foreign investment. Coupled with the impact of the so-called "South China Sea arbitration" on the regional integration of Southeast Asia, the internationalization tendency of the South China Sea issue is very significant. In the face of the complex and changeable regional development situation, in order to reduce the so-called "deep dependence" on the mainland, the DPP has once again launched a new southward policy. Under the background of the integration of the South China Sea era, the new southward direction is the comprehensive result of the "four forces game". Based on the comprehensive analysis of the four forces that affect the new southward policy, namely, the thrust of the Taiwan authorities, the pulling force of Southeast Asia, the suction of the mainland and the internal force of Taiwan businessmen, it is found that the thrust of the Taiwan authorities is obviously insufficient, the pulling force of Southeast Asian countries is limited, while the suction of the mainland is strong, and the investment choice internal force of Taiwan businessmen on the basis of marketization law is constant. The New South Policy, which attempts to circumvent the mainland, runs counter to the background of integration and is difficult to achieve its desired purpose.
【作者单位】： 中央民族大学经济学院;
【分类号】：D827
[Abstract]:Tsai ing-wen's refusal to recognize the "1992 consensus" has brought great constraints to the island's economy, especially Taiwan businessmen's foreign investment. Coupled with the impact of the so-called "South China Sea arbitration" on the regional integration of Southeast Asia, the internationalization tendency of the South China Sea issue is very significant. In the face of the complex and changeable regional development situation, in order to reduce the so-called "deep dependence" on the mainland, the DPP has once again launched a new southward policy. Under the background of the integration of the South China Sea era, the new southward direction is the comprehensive result of the "four forces game". Based on the comprehensive analysis of the four forces that affect the new southward policy, namely, the thrust of the Taiwan authorities, the pulling force of Southeast Asia, the suction of the mainland and the internal force of Taiwan businessmen, it is found that the thrust of the Taiwan authorities is obviously insufficient, the pulling force of Southeast Asian countries is limited, while the suction of the mainland is strong, and the investment choice internal force of Taiwan businessmen on the basis of marketization law is constant. The New South Policy, which attempts to circumvent the mainland, runs counter to the background of integration and is difficult to achieve its desired purpose.
【作者单位】： 中央民族大学经济学院;
【分类号】：D827
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