面向群体性突发公共事件的应急管理方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 18:51

本文关键词： 群体性突发公共事件应急管理应急决策决策支持系统性能评估　出处：《合肥工业大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：群体性突发公共事件是一类极为重要的非常规性突发公共事件,其危机控制和应急救援的实际效果较大程度上依赖于具体实施的应急管理方法。在发生重大群体性突发公共事件时,如何有效干预和控制突发事件的发生与演化,及时制定有针对性的危机处理和应急救援策略,给我国的各级行政管理部门和科学工作者提出了巨大挑战。本文结合新形势下我国群体性突发公共事件的特征,分析面向群体性突发公共事件应急管理的基本需求,研究群体性突发公共事件的应急管理数据预处理方法,建立基于多属性匹配的应急管理决策模型,研究满足多地多部门联动的群体性突发公共事件的应急管理系统设计方法,构建较为完备的应急管理系统效果评估指标系统,并研究基于证据推理方法的应急管理系统效果综合评估模型,以期为增强政府决策者的应急管理能力提供理论依据和技术手段。本文的具体研究内容和创新点如下： (1)群体性突发公共事件的演化机理。本文在分析群体性突发公共事件基本特征的基础上,总结一般性的群体性突发公共事件分类,从应急管理过程和事件扩散两个方面分析群体性突发公共事件的演化机理,并有针对性地讨论了面向群体性突发事件应急管理的多级联动应急管理机制； (2)基于多属性匹配模型的群体性突发公共事件应急管理决策方法。从剖析群体性突发公共事件应急管理决策的不确定性以及多属性特征入手,研究多源多尺度应急管理数据的采集及其预处理策略,建立基于多属性匹配的群体性突发公共事件的应急管理决策模型,并使用算例进行模型的合理性验证； (3)面向群体性突发公共事件的应急系统设计方法。本文首先从复杂管理系统的视角分析群体性突发公共事件应急管理系统的特征,并采用多智能体建模和UML建模的思想深入研究了应急管理系统的设计方法； (4)基于证据推理模型的群体性突发公共事件应急管理系统性能评估方法。分析影响群体性突发公共事件应急管理效率和成功率的救援能力、决策方案、调度能力、技术手段等因素,建立应急管理系统效果的评估指标系统,进而借鉴多属性决策理论中的不确定性评估方法,研究基于证据推理的应急管理系统效果评估模型及相关算法；本文成果扩展了群体性突发事件应急管理方法的研究思路,丰富了群体性突发公共事件应急管理系统设计的的方法体系,为群体性突发公共事件应急管理系统的综合性能评估提供了较为系统的解决方案。
[Abstract]:Group public emergency is a very important kind of unconventional public emergency. The actual effect of crisis control and emergency rescue largely depends on the implementation of emergency management methods. How to effectively intervene and control the occurrence and evolution of unexpected events and formulate timely crisis management and emergency rescue strategies has posed a great challenge to the administrative departments and scientific workers at all levels in our country. This paper analyzes the basic needs of the emergency management of mass public emergencies in the light of the characteristics of public emergencies in China under the new situation. The preprocessing method of emergency management data for mass public emergencies is studied, and the decision model of emergency management based on multi-attribute matching is established. This paper studies the design method of emergency management system to meet the needs of group public events, and constructs a more complete evaluation index system for the effect of emergency management system. And the comprehensive evaluation model of emergency management system based on evidence reasoning method is studied. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical basis and technical means for enhancing the emergency management capacity of government decision-makers. The specific research contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of mass public emergencies, this paper summarizes the general classification of group public emergencies. This paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of mass public emergency from two aspects of emergency management process and event diffusion, and discusses the multi-level linkage emergency management mechanism for group emergency management. 2) based on the multi-attribute matching model, this paper analyzes the uncertainty and multi-attribute characteristics of the emergency management of public emergencies. The acquisition and preprocessing strategy of multi-source and multi-scale emergency management data are studied, and the decision model of emergency management based on multi-attribute matching is established, and the rationality of the model is verified by an example. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of the emergency management system of mass public emergencies from the perspective of complex management system. The design method of emergency management system is studied by using the idea of multi-agent modeling and UML modeling. 4) the performance evaluation method of public emergency management system based on evidence reasoning model. The rescue ability and decision-making scheme which affect the efficiency and success rate of emergency management of mass public emergencies are analyzed. Scheduling ability, technical means and other factors, the establishment of an emergency management system evaluation index system, and then draw lessons from the multi-attribute decision-making theory of uncertainty assessment method. The effect evaluation model and related algorithms of emergency management system based on evidence reasoning are studied. This paper expands the research ideas of the emergency management method of mass emergencies, and enriches the design method system of the emergency management system of public emergencies. It provides a systematic solution for the comprehensive performance evaluation of public emergency management system.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D523

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