冷战后东亚地区军备发展的动力分析

发布时间：2018-03-29 12:29

本文选题：东亚地区　切入点：军备发展　出处：《外交评论(外交学院学报)》2013年03期

【摘要】：冷战结束后,东亚多国(地区)的军费开支及军备采购呈现持续上涨态势,尤其是海军、空军的军备增势强劲,成为当今世界"武装"程度最高的地区之一。不过,东亚各国的军费开支占GDP的比重没有发生明显变化,依然普遍低于冷战结束前的总体水平,其军备发展并未陷入恶性扩张的境地。东亚地区军备发展的动力因素是多方面的,不能简单地归结为彼此之间所谓的"竞争压力"。其中既有武器的更新换代、军事生产的制度化和国内安全威胁等内在需求的合理性,又有"行动—反应"因素的巨大作用。中日韩三国的军费开支和军备进口没有密切的关联性,中国军费的持续增长没有带来日韩两国相应的、成比例的军费增长,说明中国军费的"补偿性增长"并没有导致东北亚地区的军备竞赛。而东南亚国家的军费开支和军备进口规模远逊于中日韩三国,其军备发展动力的"行动—反应"特征在很大程度上体现为东盟内部的竞争。另外,"技术强制性"因素的影响力不容小觑,带动了东亚国家购买先进军备的极大热情,也导致其军备发展具有一定的盲目性。随着美国强势"重返亚太",东亚地区军备发展的竞争性会进一步增强,其后果应当引起东亚国家的高度关注。
[Abstract]:After the end of the Cold War, military expenditures and arms purchases in many countries (regions) in East Asia have continued to rise, especially in the navy and air force, which have become one of the most heavily armed regions in the world. The proportion of military expenditure in GDP in East Asian countries has not changed significantly, and it is still generally lower than the overall level before the end of the Cold War, and its arms development has not fallen into a situation of vicious expansion. There are many factors driving the development of armaments in East Asia. It cannot simply be attributed to the so-called "competitive pressure" between them, in which the inherent needs of the replacement of existing weapons, the institutionalization of military production and the threat to domestic security are reasonable, There is also a huge effect of the "active-reaction" factor. There is no close correlation between the military expenditure and arms imports of China, Japan and South Korea, and the continued increase in China's military spending has not resulted in a corresponding, proportionate increase in military spending between Japan and South Korea. It shows that the "compensatory increase" in China's military spending has not led to an arms race in Northeast Asia. The military spending and arms imports of Southeast Asian countries are far less than those of China, Japan, and South Korea. In addition, the influence of the "technological compulsion" factor should not be underestimated, which has stimulated the East Asian countries' great enthusiasm to purchase advanced armaments. With the United States returning to the Asia-Pacific region, the competitiveness of arms development in East Asia will be further enhanced, and its consequences should be highly concerned by the East Asian countries.
【作者单位】：吉林大学行政学院国际政治系;吉林大学东北亚研究院;
【基金】：笔者主持的吉林省高校优秀青年科研人才春苗培育计划项目“东亚地缘格局再造的新趋势与我国的战略对策”(项目编号:2012QY061)的阶段性研究成果吉林大学繁荣发展哲学社会科学行动计划(2011—2020)青年学术骨干支持计划项目“东亚安全风险管理与中国的区域安全战略”(项目编号:2012FRGG15) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国东北亚战略与政策研究”(项目编号:09JDB0037)的资助
【分类号】：D73

【相似文献】