论当前东南亚局势

发布时间：2018-04-22 09:00

本文选题：东盟 + 东南亚　；参考：《东南亚研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：在经济上,东南亚各国在保持连续多年较快增长的基础上,今后几年还将继续平稳增长。在政治上,近年东盟各国政局基本稳定,马来西亚、泰国将举行大选,预计不会有太大的变化。印尼新总统佐科已经巩固了自己的地位,缅甸新政府能否有所作为,还需要再做进一步的观察。然而,受大国关系重新建构的影响,东南亚安全局势变得比较复杂,美国新总统特朗普的对外政策变化将会为今后大国在东南亚的博弈增添许多变数。特别是今后中美关系的演变,将给该地区政治、经济与安全局势带来更多的不确定性。
[Abstract]:On the economic front, Southeast Asian countries will continue to grow steadily in the next few years on the basis of sustained rapid growth for many years. Politically, the political situation of ASEAN countries has been basically stable in recent years. Malaysia and Thailand will hold general elections, but they are not expected to change much. Indonesia's new president Joko has cemented his position, and whether the new government can do anything more needs to be seen. However, the security situation in Southeast Asia is becoming more complicated under the influence of the re-construction of power relations. The changes in foreign policy of the new US President Donald Trump will add many variables to the game of great powers in Southeast Asia in the future. In particular, the evolution of Sino-US relations in the future will bring more uncertainty to the political, economic and security situation in the region.
【作者单位】：暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“东南亚安全格局对我实施‘21世纪海上丝绸之路’战略的影响研究”(16ZDA091)
【分类号】：D733

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