冷战后美国发展国家导弹防御的动因研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 02:17

本文选题：战后 + 美国　；参考：《外交学院》2002年博士论文

【摘要】： 本论文利用国际系统层次分析法和国内政治层次分析法，分析比较威胁、战略、技术、军控和费用5因素在冷战后对美国发展国家导弹防御政策的影响，并得出结论认为：第一、美国发展国家导弹防御系统的动因是威胁、战略、技术、军控和费用等5个因素相互共同作用的结果。第二、威胁、战略、技术、军控和费用等5个因素对美国发展国家导弹防御的影响作用不同。这些影响具体表现在如下4个方面：在同一时期表现为不同的因素对最终政策的影响程度不同；每个因素既可能表现为推动作用，，也可能表现为制约作用；每个因素既可能从相对的客观存在出发，也可能从主观的判断出发影响美国发展国家导弹防御的进程；在不同的时期表现为，同一因素对最终的政策影响程度可能不同。第三、在每个时期，威胁、战略、技术、军控和费用等5个因素都受到美国国内政治与国际政治的影响，美国国内政治对这些因素的影响大于国际政治的影响。美国国内政治对发展国家导弹防御系统的观点主要有左、中、右三种，政府的立场往往采取中间路线。第四、影响美国发展国家导弹防御的核心因素是战略因素。第五、威胁因素是调整国家导弹防御政策的重要“依据”。第六、技术因素的客观决定作用受国内政治影响而减弱。第七、军控因素、费用因素很重要，但作用有限。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) of the International system and the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in domestic politics to analyze the impact of comparative threat, strategy, technology, arms control and cost on the US national missile defense policy after the Cold War. The conclusions are as follows: first, the motivation for the development of the NMD system in the United States is threat, strategy, and technology. The result of five factors, such as arms control and cost. Second, the five factors of threat, strategy, technology, arms control and cost have different effects on the development of national missile defense. These effects are manifested in the following four aspects: different factors have different influence on the final policy in the same period; Each factor may affect the process of US development of NMD from both objective relative existence and subjective judgment, and the same factor may have different influence on the final policy in different periods. Thirdly, in each period, five factors, such as threat, strategy, technology, arms control and cost, are influenced by the domestic and international politics of the United States, and the influence of the domestic politics of the United States on these factors is greater than that of the international politics. There are three main views on the development of national missile defense system in American domestic politics: left, middle and right. Fourth, the core factor affecting the US development of NMD is the strategic factor. Fifth, the threat factor is an important basis for adjusting the national missile defense policy. Sixth, the objective determinant role of technical factors is weakened by domestic political influence. Seventh, the arms control factor, the expense factor is very important, but the function is limited.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：D815

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