文物裂隙趋势预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 10:36

  本文选题：文物预防性保护 + 裂隙　； 参考：《文物保护与考古科学》2017年01期

【摘要】：露天不可移动文物常年遭受风化侵蚀和人为破坏,保存环境十分恶劣,掌握文物健康状况并进行趋势预测,是"预防性"文物保护工作的重要内容。文物健康监测数据具有不确定性和贫信息性,传统概率统计方法和模糊数学方法不能满足预测要求。针对文物裂隙数据的特点,以陕西唐顺陵天禄石刻为研究对象,提出了采用灰色系统理论来预测文物裂隙发展趋势,建立了裂隙GM((1,1)模型和Verhulst模型,分别确定了灰色模型的灰色作用量和发展系数,并且对唐顺陵石刻文物的裂隙进行了预测。实验用前12个月的裂隙月均值,对随后的7个月的裂隙进行了定量预测,发现天禄石刻的裂隙有缓慢增大的趋势。与同期真实裂隙监测值相比,GM((1,1)模型和Verhulst模型预测值的平均相对误差满足裂隙预测精度要求。研究结果为文物健康趋势研究提供了定量分析的理论依据。
[Abstract]:The unmovable cultural relics in the open air have been weathered and destroyed by people all the year round, and the preservation environment is very bad. It is an important content of the "preventive" cultural relic protection work to grasp the health status of cultural relics and forecast the trend. The health monitoring data of cultural relic is uncertain and poor in information. The traditional probabilistic statistical method and fuzzy mathematics method can not meet the requirement of prediction. According to the characteristics of the fracture data of cultural relic, taking the Tianlu stone carving in Tangshunling, Shaanxi Province as the research object, this paper puts forward the grey system theory to predict the development trend of the cultural relic fissure, and establishes the fissure GMU 1 / 1) model and the Verhulst model. The grey function and development coefficient of the grey model are determined, and the cracks of the stone relics of Tang Shunling are predicted. Based on the monthly mean of the fissures in the first 12 months, a quantitative prediction of the fissures in the following 7 months is carried out. It is found that the fissures of the Tianlu stone carvings tend to increase slowly. The average relative error of the predicted values of the model and the Verhulst model meets the requirement of fracture prediction accuracy compared with the real fracture monitoring values in the same period. The results provide a theoretical basis for quantitative analysis of health trends of cultural relics.
【作者单位】： 西安建筑科技大学管理学院;西安科技大学通信与信息工程学院;西安建筑科技大学信息与控制工程学院;陕西省文物保护研究院;砖石质文物保护国家文物局重点科研基地;福州大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划课题资助(2012BAK14B01) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目资助(20126120110008) 国家教育部归国留学人员科技支撑项目资助(K05055) 西安市碑林区科技计划项目资助(GX1614)
【分类号】：K877.4;N941.5
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本文编号：1838162