基于生命表法的大汶口文化时期古人平均预期寿命初探
发布时间：2018-07-22 12:49
【摘要】：平均预期寿命是反映一国家、地区人类健康状况的重要指标,也是综合反映国家、地区社会生活状况的“晴雨表”。它通过编制生命表来计算,这种方法是现代人口统计的一种重要方法,目前其理论和技术手段都比较完善。在合理的假设条件下,这种分析方法的基本原理可以借用到考古学中。通过对遗址人骨鉴定报告的数据统计,做生命表并计算古人平均预期寿命可以让我们从一个侧面了解古人的社会生活状况。 本文利用生命表法对大汶口文化典型墓地进行了尝试性的统计分析并提出影响古人平均预期寿命的各因素及它们的相互关系,共分为四章7个部分。 第一部分,绪论,包括本文的选题和研究目的,平均预期寿命的概念,生命表的编制原理和方法,以及国内研究史前古人平均预期寿命的现状和本文的研究方法与思路。 第二部分,第一章包括3节内容。第一节统计了大汶口文化所有己发表有人骨鉴定报告并满足符合本文统计规范的的遗址。 第二节对符合本文统计要求的9遗址进行生命表编制和平均预期寿命的计算,以王因遗址为例,详细描述了生命表的编制过程。 第三节做各墓地死亡年龄直方图和P-P图对平均预期寿命的结果进行初步的比较和死亡年龄分布统计检验。提出平均预期寿命较高的7遗址死亡年龄分布服从正态分布并给出其数学意义；尉迟寺和五村遗址平均预期寿命较低的原因与遗址出土人骨低年龄段占总人骨数很大比重有关,另也可能与遗址发掘状况及其他影响平均预期寿命因素有关,比如战争、饥荒、迁徙等。并指出,鉴于定量统计的结果受材料可靠程度的影响很大,人骨鉴定工作今后需要提高鉴定精度。 第三部分,第二章分为三节。本节是利用SPSS软件从遗址的地理位置和社会经济因素进行定量统计分析。第一节对9遗址根据平均预期寿命、经度、纬度、遗址面积、每具人骨平均占有随葬品数量这5个指标进行聚类分析,把9遗址分为3类,剔除掉两个预期寿命偏低的遗址后进行再分类,把7遗址分为2类并对结果进行讨论。初步指出经度、纬度因素对各遗址古人平均预期寿命影响要大于社会经济因素。 第二节通过用相关及多元回归分析法尝试揭示9遗址的平均预期寿命、经度、纬度、遗址面积、每具人骨平均占有随葬品数量这5个指标的相互关系,结果显示平均预期寿命与其他4个指标每两个之间相关性不大。多元回归分析的结果显示经度对各遗址平均预期寿命的影响最大,其次是纬度,而遗址面积、每具人骨平均占有随葬品数量这2个用以指示遗址社会经济状况的因素对平均预期寿命的影响次于经度、纬度因素。并结合各遗址所对应的大汶口文化分期,指出大汶口文化早期到中期阶段存在古人平均预期寿命降低的现象。 第三节为本章小结,分别从空间、时间角度指出大汶口文化时期古人平均预期寿命存在地区差异和时期变动。 第四部分：对生命表法在考古学的应用需注意的问题进行探讨。第一节通过编制分期别生命表计算出的平均预期寿命和遗址总人口生命表计算的结果相比较并讨论误差的影响,指出今后应注意历时性问题,尽可能编制分期别生命表以保证精确度和科学性。 第二节从分性别编制生命表的结果初步讨论了男性、女性平均预期寿命在大汶口文化阶段的差异。并根据王因、刘林墓地男女死亡年龄累积曲线指出生活在王因、刘林遗址的古人女性平均初育年龄可能为17岁,并探讨了造成女性平均预期寿命低于男性的原因。指出除了可能与妇女在围产期大量死亡有关,还可能与女性社会地位低于男性有关。 第三节通过环境考古近年来的研究认识,对大汶口文化从早期阶段到中期阶段古人平均预期寿命存在降低的现象进行分析,认为与古气候的变化特别是距今6000年左右开始的全球气候变化有一定相关性。并尝试从医疗卫生方面分析古人平均预期寿命的变化。 第五部分,第四章分为三节,对生命表法在考古学的其他应用做尝试性探讨。第一节病理分析,通过介绍去死因生命表及其编制方法,认为今后可利用此法统计古人的病因及研究史前遗址是否存在地方性疾病等。 第二节人口数量统计分析,回顾了人口增长的概念和人口再生产的模式,介绍了人口统计学人口预测的方法,指出可以在一定条件下用人口预测的公式回溯逆推历史时期乃至史前人口数量；并以西汉人口数量变化过程分析了本文这种方法与思路的可行性,通过介绍模型生命表提供了一种研究史前人口数量的具体方法,并以王因为例介绍其算法,并通过统计检验图检验假设前提。 第三节为本章小结,指出生命表在考古学的应用前景和应用局限。 第六部分,结语。结语对大汶口文化时代古人平均预期寿命影响因素进行总结并指出今后研究需要从其他角度思考问题。对于生命表在考古学的应用存在的一些细节问题进行讨论,并给出今后的研究思路；提出人口统计学方法和基本概念在考古学应用中要注意考虑应用前提和条件。最后对本文的计算误差及生命表在考古学的应用前景和局限进行总结。 第七部分,附表里登录了依据本文统计规范所选取的原始数据。 本文的创新点在于： 1.结合多学科背景知识,对影响平均预期寿命的主要因素进行定量的定性研究。通过相关分析,讨论了各因素对平均预期寿命变化的影响；并尝试进行回归分析,得出影响平均预期寿命各因素的重要程度,并结合遗址进行规律性的探讨。 2.对生命表法在考古学运用中存在的方法移植问题进行检验。通过做遗址分期生命表讨论了计算结果的误差并从分期生命表中再次验证了大汶口文化早期阶段到中期阶段存在着平均预期寿命降低的现象。 3.分性别编制生命表并对大汶口文化早期阶段存在的男性平均预期寿命高于女性的现象进行初步探讨。 4.本文从一个大的文化时期对多处遗址进行生命表编制并计算平均预期寿命,从结果中也显示出大汶口文化时期似乎存在着多种对应关系。如气候变化与平均预期寿命的变化,社会性质的变化与平均预期寿命的变化似乎有一定的联系。 5.对生命表在考古学的具体应用提出自己的见解,认为应结合考古实际,今后有针对性地选取墓葬数量较多的遗址重点突破,建立史前社会区域模型生命表作为标尺,为其他遗址提供参照标准。
[Abstract]:The average life expectancy is an important indicator to reflect the health of a country and a region. It is also a "barometer" which reflects the state of the country and the social life in a comprehensive way. It is calculated by the compilation of the life table. This method is an important method of modern demographic statistics. At present, its theoretical and technical means are perfect. Under the conditions, the basic principles of this analytical method can be used in archaeology. Through the statistics of the data of the human bone identification report of the site, the life table and the calculation of the average life expectancy of the ancients can let us understand the social life of the ancients from one side.
This paper uses the life table method to make a tentative statistical analysis of the typical tombs of the great Wen mouth culture and puts forward the factors affecting the average life expectancy of the ancient people and their relations, which are divided into four chapters and 7 parts.
In the first part, the introduction, including the topic and purpose of this paper, the concept of average life expectancy, the principle and method of the life table, and the status of the study of the average life expectancy of the prehistoric people in China, and the research methods and ideas of this paper.
The second part, the first chapter includes 3 sections. The first section of the first section of the statistics of the great Wen mouth culture has published a human bone identification report and meet the statistical norms of the site.
In the second section, the life table and the average life expectancy of the 9 sites in accordance with the statistical requirements of this article are calculated. Taking the Wang Yin site as an example, the compilation process of the life table is described in detail.
The third section makes a preliminary comparison of the results of the average life expectancy and the statistical test of the age distribution of the average life expectancy on the death age histogram and P-P map of the cemetery. It is proposed that the average life expectancy of 7 sites with higher average life expectancy obeys the normal distribution and gives its mathematical significance; the reasons for the lower average life expectancy of the Wei Chi temple and the five village sites are the reasons for the lower life expectancy and the lower average life expectancy. The low age segment of the unearthed human bone is related to the large proportion of the total number of bone, and it may also be related to the site excavation and other factors affecting the average life expectancy, such as war, famine, migration, etc., and point out that the results of quantitative statistics are greatly influenced by the reliability of the material, and the accuracy of identification in human bone identification needs to be improved in the future.
The third part, the second chapter is divided into three sections. This section uses SPSS software to carry out quantitative statistical analysis from the geographical location and social and economic factors of the site. The first section of the 9 sites, according to the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the average number of burial items of each bone, the 5 indexes are divided into 3 categories and removed from the 9 sites. Two sites with low life expectancy were reclassified, and the 7 sites were divided into 2 categories and the results were discussed. It was preliminarily pointed out that the longitude factors had greater impact on the average life expectancy of the ancient people of each site than the social and economic factors.
The second section tries to reveal the relationship between the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the average number of the 5 sites of the 9 sites, and the results show that the average life expectancy has little correlation with the other 4 indexes, and the results of multiple regression analysis show that the results of multiple regression analysis show that there is no correlation between the average life expectancy and the other 4 indexes. The longitude has the greatest impact on the average life expectancy of each site, followed by latitude, and the site area, and the average number of burial items for each human bone, 2 to indicate the impact of the social and economic conditions on the site to the average life expectancy after the longitude, and the latitude factors. In the early and middle stages of culture, the average life expectancy of the ancients decreased.
The third section is a summary of this chapter. From the space and time point of view, it points out that there are regional differences and time changes in the average life expectancy of the ancients in the period of the great culture.
The fourth part: the first section compares the average life expectancy calculated by the compilation of the staging life table with the results of the calculation of the life table of the total population of the site, and discusses the influence of the error, and points out that the problem of the calendar should be paid attention to in the future, and the staging life table should be prepared as far as possible. To ensure accuracy and scientificity.
The second section gives a preliminary discussion on the difference between male and female average life expectancy at the cultural stage in the great Wen mouth from the results of the gender based life table. According to Wang Yin, the cumulative curve of the death age of men and women in Liu Lin's cemetery points out that the average young women of the ancient women of the Liu Lin site may be 17 years old. The cause of life expectancy is lower than that of men. It is pointed out that besides being associated with a large number of deaths in perinatal period, women may also be associated with lower social status of women than men.
The third section, through the research and understanding of Environmental Archaeology in recent years, analyzes the decline of the average life expectancy of the ancient people from the early stage to the middle stage of the culture from the early stage to the middle stage. It is believed that there is a certain correlation with the change of the paleoclimate, especially the global climate change that began about 6000 years ago. Changes in average life expectancy.
The fifth part, the fourth chapter is divided into three sections, the life table method in the archaeology of other applications to do an attempt to explore. The first section of the pathological analysis, through the introduction of the death list of the cause of death and the compilation of methods, it is believed that this method can be used in the future to statistics the etiological factors of the ancients and to study whether the prehistoric sites are in the local diseases.
The second section of population statistics analysis, reviewed the concept of population growth and the mode of population reproduction, introduced the method of demographic population prediction, and pointed out that the population quantity of historical and prehistoric population could be traced back by the formula of population prediction under certain conditions, and this paper analyzed this article in the process of the change of the population in the Western Han Dynasty. The feasibility of the method and thought is presented. By introducing the model life table, a specific method is provided to study the number of prehistoric population, and the algorithm is introduced by King as an example, and the hypothesis is tested by a statistical test chart.
The third section is the summary of this chapter, pointing out the application prospect and application limitation of life table in archaeology.
The sixth part, concluding conclusion, summarizes the factors that influence the average life expectancy of the ancient people in the time of the great Wen mouth culture, and points out that the future research needs to think about the problems from other angles. It also discusses the details of the application of the life table in archaeology, and gives the research ideas in the future; and puts forward the demographics and basic methods. In the application of archaeology, we should pay attention to the application of the premise and conditions. Finally, the calculation error and the application prospects and limitations of the life table in archaeology are summarized.
The seventh part is listed in the attached table according to the original data selected according to the statistical specification.
The innovation of this article lies in:
1. in combination with multidisciplinary background knowledge, quantitative qualitative research on the main factors affecting average life expectancy is carried out. Through the correlation analysis, the influence of the factors on the change of average life expectancy is discussed, and the regression analysis is carried out to obtain the importance of the factors affecting the average life expectancy, and the regularity of the sites is discussed.
2. the life table method was used to test the problem of transplantation in the application of archaeology. The error of the calculation results was discussed by the site staging life table and the average life expectancy decreased from the early stage to the middle stage of the life table.
3. life tables were compiled according to gender, and the average life expectancy of men in the early stage of Da Wen culture was higher than that of females.
4. from a large cultural period, the life table of many sites was compiled and the average life expectancy was calculated. From the results, there seemed to be a variety of corresponding relationships in the great cultural period. For example, the change of climate change with the average life expectancy, the change of social nature and the change of average life expectancy seemed to be related.
5. the life table in the specific application of archaeology put forward his own views, that should be combined with the archaeological practice, in the future to select the grave number of more grave sites to focus on the breakthrough, the establishment of the prehistoric social regional model life table as a scale for other sites to provide reference standards.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：K878
本文编号：2137517
[Abstract]:The average life expectancy is an important indicator to reflect the health of a country and a region. It is also a "barometer" which reflects the state of the country and the social life in a comprehensive way. It is calculated by the compilation of the life table. This method is an important method of modern demographic statistics. At present, its theoretical and technical means are perfect. Under the conditions, the basic principles of this analytical method can be used in archaeology. Through the statistics of the data of the human bone identification report of the site, the life table and the calculation of the average life expectancy of the ancients can let us understand the social life of the ancients from one side.
This paper uses the life table method to make a tentative statistical analysis of the typical tombs of the great Wen mouth culture and puts forward the factors affecting the average life expectancy of the ancient people and their relations, which are divided into four chapters and 7 parts.
In the first part, the introduction, including the topic and purpose of this paper, the concept of average life expectancy, the principle and method of the life table, and the status of the study of the average life expectancy of the prehistoric people in China, and the research methods and ideas of this paper.
The second part, the first chapter includes 3 sections. The first section of the first section of the statistics of the great Wen mouth culture has published a human bone identification report and meet the statistical norms of the site.
In the second section, the life table and the average life expectancy of the 9 sites in accordance with the statistical requirements of this article are calculated. Taking the Wang Yin site as an example, the compilation process of the life table is described in detail.
The third section makes a preliminary comparison of the results of the average life expectancy and the statistical test of the age distribution of the average life expectancy on the death age histogram and P-P map of the cemetery. It is proposed that the average life expectancy of 7 sites with higher average life expectancy obeys the normal distribution and gives its mathematical significance; the reasons for the lower average life expectancy of the Wei Chi temple and the five village sites are the reasons for the lower life expectancy and the lower average life expectancy. The low age segment of the unearthed human bone is related to the large proportion of the total number of bone, and it may also be related to the site excavation and other factors affecting the average life expectancy, such as war, famine, migration, etc., and point out that the results of quantitative statistics are greatly influenced by the reliability of the material, and the accuracy of identification in human bone identification needs to be improved in the future.
The third part, the second chapter is divided into three sections. This section uses SPSS software to carry out quantitative statistical analysis from the geographical location and social and economic factors of the site. The first section of the 9 sites, according to the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the average number of burial items of each bone, the 5 indexes are divided into 3 categories and removed from the 9 sites. Two sites with low life expectancy were reclassified, and the 7 sites were divided into 2 categories and the results were discussed. It was preliminarily pointed out that the longitude factors had greater impact on the average life expectancy of the ancient people of each site than the social and economic factors.
The second section tries to reveal the relationship between the average life expectancy, longitude, latitude, site area, and the average number of the 5 sites of the 9 sites, and the results show that the average life expectancy has little correlation with the other 4 indexes, and the results of multiple regression analysis show that the results of multiple regression analysis show that there is no correlation between the average life expectancy and the other 4 indexes. The longitude has the greatest impact on the average life expectancy of each site, followed by latitude, and the site area, and the average number of burial items for each human bone, 2 to indicate the impact of the social and economic conditions on the site to the average life expectancy after the longitude, and the latitude factors. In the early and middle stages of culture, the average life expectancy of the ancients decreased.
The third section is a summary of this chapter. From the space and time point of view, it points out that there are regional differences and time changes in the average life expectancy of the ancients in the period of the great culture.
The fourth part: the first section compares the average life expectancy calculated by the compilation of the staging life table with the results of the calculation of the life table of the total population of the site, and discusses the influence of the error, and points out that the problem of the calendar should be paid attention to in the future, and the staging life table should be prepared as far as possible. To ensure accuracy and scientificity.
The second section gives a preliminary discussion on the difference between male and female average life expectancy at the cultural stage in the great Wen mouth from the results of the gender based life table. According to Wang Yin, the cumulative curve of the death age of men and women in Liu Lin's cemetery points out that the average young women of the ancient women of the Liu Lin site may be 17 years old. The cause of life expectancy is lower than that of men. It is pointed out that besides being associated with a large number of deaths in perinatal period, women may also be associated with lower social status of women than men.
The third section, through the research and understanding of Environmental Archaeology in recent years, analyzes the decline of the average life expectancy of the ancient people from the early stage to the middle stage of the culture from the early stage to the middle stage. It is believed that there is a certain correlation with the change of the paleoclimate, especially the global climate change that began about 6000 years ago. Changes in average life expectancy.
The fifth part, the fourth chapter is divided into three sections, the life table method in the archaeology of other applications to do an attempt to explore. The first section of the pathological analysis, through the introduction of the death list of the cause of death and the compilation of methods, it is believed that this method can be used in the future to statistics the etiological factors of the ancients and to study whether the prehistoric sites are in the local diseases.
The second section of population statistics analysis, reviewed the concept of population growth and the mode of population reproduction, introduced the method of demographic population prediction, and pointed out that the population quantity of historical and prehistoric population could be traced back by the formula of population prediction under certain conditions, and this paper analyzed this article in the process of the change of the population in the Western Han Dynasty. The feasibility of the method and thought is presented. By introducing the model life table, a specific method is provided to study the number of prehistoric population, and the algorithm is introduced by King as an example, and the hypothesis is tested by a statistical test chart.
The third section is the summary of this chapter, pointing out the application prospect and application limitation of life table in archaeology.
The sixth part, concluding conclusion, summarizes the factors that influence the average life expectancy of the ancient people in the time of the great Wen mouth culture, and points out that the future research needs to think about the problems from other angles. It also discusses the details of the application of the life table in archaeology, and gives the research ideas in the future; and puts forward the demographics and basic methods. In the application of archaeology, we should pay attention to the application of the premise and conditions. Finally, the calculation error and the application prospects and limitations of the life table in archaeology are summarized.
The seventh part is listed in the attached table according to the original data selected according to the statistical specification.
The innovation of this article lies in:
1. in combination with multidisciplinary background knowledge, quantitative qualitative research on the main factors affecting average life expectancy is carried out. Through the correlation analysis, the influence of the factors on the change of average life expectancy is discussed, and the regression analysis is carried out to obtain the importance of the factors affecting the average life expectancy, and the regularity of the sites is discussed.
2. the life table method was used to test the problem of transplantation in the application of archaeology. The error of the calculation results was discussed by the site staging life table and the average life expectancy decreased from the early stage to the middle stage of the life table.
3. life tables were compiled according to gender, and the average life expectancy of men in the early stage of Da Wen culture was higher than that of females.
4. from a large cultural period, the life table of many sites was compiled and the average life expectancy was calculated. From the results, there seemed to be a variety of corresponding relationships in the great cultural period. For example, the change of climate change with the average life expectancy, the change of social nature and the change of average life expectancy seemed to be related.
5. the life table in the specific application of archaeology put forward his own views, that should be combined with the archaeological practice, in the future to select the grave number of more grave sites to focus on the breakthrough, the establishment of the prehistoric social regional model life table as a scale for other sites to provide reference standards.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：K878
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