我国人口老龄化对财政平衡的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 15:40

本文关键词：我国人口老龄化对财政平衡的影响研究　出处：《北京林业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据我国第六次人口普查数据显示,我国65岁及以上老年人口占8.87%,比2000年第五次人口普查上升1.91个百分点。根据联合国的保守预测,我国65岁及以上人口占比最早将在2025年达到甚至超过14%。可见我国老龄化形式严峻。老龄化带来的社会问题诸多：劳动力短缺、国民经济增速下降、社会福利下降等。另外,通过影响国民经济的各个方面,老龄化还会影响政府的财政收支,进而影响政府财政的平衡。本文主要研究了我国人口老龄化与财政平衡之间的关系。文章开篇第一、二、三章首先介绍了我国老龄化的现状以及目前老龄化研究的理论成果,接着采取定性的方式分析了人口老龄化对于社会经济各个方面的不良影响,以及对财政平衡的影响。在本文第四、五章,作者分别建立了老龄化对财政平衡影响的两个模型：一般线性回归模型和改进后的动态路径模型。在模型基础上,通过实证分析的方式,研究了短期与长期两个角度下人口老龄化对财政平衡的影响。最终得出：短期内,老龄化对财政平衡的影响不显著；但在长期,老龄化对财政平衡具有显著影响的结论。如果政府不采取适当的措施,十年后老龄化将会成为政府巨额财政赤字的关键影响因素。论文第六章,在总结定性与定量分析结论的基础上,为解决人口老龄化对财政平衡影响的问题提供了可行的政策建议。解决老龄化问题的原则是：既不能操之过急,也不能放任不管。通过逐步推进的方式,稳步解决人口老龄化问题,及其对财政平衡的影响。
[Abstract]:According to the data of the sixth census in China , the population accounts for 8.87 % of the population aged 65 years and over , up by 1.91 percentage points than the fifth census in 2000 . According to the conservative forecast of the United Nations , China ' s aged 65 and above will reach even more than 14 % in 2025 . The social problems brought by aging are many : shortage of labor force , declining national economy , declining social welfare , etc . In addition , the aging will also affect the government ' s financial revenue and expenditure by influencing all aspects of the national economy , which will affect the balance of government finances . This paper mainly studies the relationship between population aging and fiscal balance in our country . First , two and three chapters introduce the present situation of aging in our country and the theoretical results of the research on aging , and then take a qualitative analysis of the adverse effects of aging on all aspects of social economy , as well as the effect on fiscal balance . In the fourth and fifth chapters , the author establishes two models : general linear regression model and improved dynamic path model . Based on the model , the effects of aging on fiscal balance in short - term and long - term are studied . Chapter 6 , based on the conclusion of qualitative and quantitative analysis , provides a feasible policy suggestion to solve the problem of population ageing on fiscal balance . The principle of solving aging problem is that it is neither too urgent nor allowed to let go . Through the gradual promotion , the problem of population ageing is steadily solved , and its influence on fiscal balance is steadily solved .

【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.0;C924.24

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