江西省人口老龄化县域差异及其影响因素

发布时间：2018-02-12 12:37

本文关键词： 人口老龄化县域地理加权回归(GWR)模型江西省　出处：《地域研究与开发》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化是当代中国三大人口问题之一,受到政府和社会的广泛关注。利用探索性空间数据分析江西省人口老龄化的县域时空差异,通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型深入探讨江西省人口老龄化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000—2010年江西省人口老龄化系数显著提高,由6.29%提高到7.76%,由成年型社会转变为老年型社会;(2)2000—2010年江西省人口老龄化县域空间差异逐渐扩大,保持较强的正相关,全局指数分别为0.443,0.176,热点集聚显著但逐渐减弱,冷点区扩大;(3)不同因素对县域人口老龄化影响有所差异,人均GDP、城镇化、万人医生数等指标促进了人口老龄化,人口自然增长率及教育占财政支出等指标抑制了人口老龄化。
[Abstract]:Population aging is one of the three major population problems in contemporary China, which has received extensive attention from the government and society. Using exploratory spatial data to analyze the temporal and spatial differences of population aging in Jiangxi Province, The influencing factors of population aging in Jiangxi Province were discussed by GWR model. The results showed that the coefficient of population aging in Jiangxi Province increased significantly from 2000 to 2010. From 6.29% to 7.76, from the adult society to the old society, the spatial difference of the aging population in the counties of Jiangxi Province gradually expanded from 2000 to 2010, and maintained a strong positive correlation. The global index was 0.443 or 0.176 respectively, and the hot spots gathered significantly but gradually weakened. The influence of different factors on the aging of the county population is different. The per capita GDP, urbanization and the number of doctors per person have promoted the aging of the population, and the natural growth rate of population and the proportion of education to the financial expenditure have restrained the aging of the population.
【作者单位】：东华理工大学核资源与环境省部共建国家重点实验室;东华理工大学地球科学学院;
【基金】：江西省自然科学基金项目(20151BAB213032) 东华理工大学研究生创新项目(DHYC-2015006) 核资源与环境重点实验室开放基金项目(NRE1310)
【分类号】：C924.2

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