二维死亡模型对中国人口死亡模式的适用性研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 06:10

本文选题：二维死亡模型　切入点：死亡率　出处：《中国人口科学》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：高质量人口死亡数据的匮乏长期困扰着中国的死亡率研究,死亡率的间接估计也由此成为中国人口研究的一项重要的基础性工作。过去常用的方法如模型生命表和死亡关联模型等存在的一些缺陷会导致死亡率的误估。Wilmoth等提出的二维死亡模型具有对数据要求少、估计效果好的特点,但该模型的提出、构建和验证均基于发达国家的死亡率数据,对中国人口死亡模式的适用性还有待检验。文章从模型构建、经验系数和输入参数3个方面考察该模型的适用性。研究结果表明,二维死亡模型在理论和模型估计上均对中国有较好的适用性,能准确地刻画中国人口死亡率的年龄模式。对拟合效果的检验和比较显示,二维死亡模型估计的精度优于其他的间接估计方法,拟合效果更好。
[Abstract]:The lack of high-quality death data has long plagued China's mortality studies. The indirect estimation of mortality has also become an important basic work in Chinese population research. Some defects in the previous methods such as model life table and death correlation model will lead to the misestimate of mortality. Wilmoth and so on. The proposed two-dimensional death model requires less data. This model is based on the mortality data of developed countries, and the applicability of the model to the Chinese population death model has yet to be tested. The applicability of the model is investigated in terms of empirical coefficients and input parameters. The results show that both the theory and the model estimation of the two-dimensional death model are applicable to China. The fitting results show that the precision of two-dimensional death model is better than other indirect estimation methods, and the fitting effect is better.
【作者单位】：复旦大学人口研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国人口寿命不均等的变化趋势、影响因素及对策研究”(编号:71473044)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.2

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