银川平原城镇区域人口时空涨落与环境变迁的拟合研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 03:28

本文选题：人口涨落　切入点：环境变迁　出处：《西北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着城镇化进程的加快,小城镇数量及规模迅速发展,人口向城镇区域集聚。银川平原城镇区域作为宁夏全区自然、社会经济条件具有相对优势的地区,资源开发强度大,人口规模扩张迅速；同时在宁夏“十二五”生态移民规划中,要对南部山区34.6万人移民搬迁至中北部地区,未来银川平原城镇区域面临巨大的人口集聚压力。银川平原城镇区域基于绿洲环境而发展,由于绿洲自然系统本身的脆弱性及不稳定特征,造成银川平原城镇区域发展与环境系统间关系更为密切,对彼此间的响应更为敏感。基于此,论文对银川平原城镇区域人口时空涨落过程及特征、环境资源(土地资源、水资源)的演化轨迹进行分析；主要从人口规模与环境资源状态、环境资源消耗、环境资源污染、环境资源保护的关联关系演化轨迹来定量分析银川平原城镇区域人口—环境系统协同发展状况；并从耕地资源、水资源、经济资源三方面计算银川平原城镇区域相对于宁夏全区的综合承载力,为未来宁夏优化人口空间布局及可持续发展提供参考,并得出如下结论： (1)从空间尺度看,在行政、经济、资源等因素驱动下,三大市区(银川市、石嘴山市、吴忠市)在人口规模、人口密度、增长速度方面,明显高于其他5个县域,人口空间分布结构与银川平原城镇区域的城镇规模结构相吻合,各市县地理集中度逐年升高,但人口不均衡指数升高。从时间尺度看,各城镇因行政区划变革等因素导致人口局部涨落特征,但整个银川平原城镇区域人口快速集聚,且未来人口规模有继续扩张的趋势。 (2)在土地资源方面,银川平原城镇区域各市县建设用地增加快,尤其是市区建设用地的快速扩张,侵占耕地面积导致人均耕地面积明显减少；从整个银川平原城镇区域看,由于人口规模的快速扩张,未利用地开发量大；同时银川平原城镇区域仍面临严重的土地沙化及盐渍化问题。在水资源方面,银川平原城镇区域降水量因受全球气候的影响处于降低的趋势；近年黄河来水量减少,外加国家对宁夏引黄用水的限制,加大了对地下水的开采,加剧了地下水埋深下降,综合来看,银川平原城镇区域水量明显减少。在资源环境消耗及污染方面,银川平原城镇区域资源环境污染水平处于上升趋势；但在资源消耗尤其是水资源消耗方面,空间差异特征明显,其中银川市资源消耗水平上升,石嘴山及吴忠市资源消耗水平呈下降趋势。 (3)在系统要素层面,市区人口规模与市区建成区面积及人均耕地面积关联度高,但5县人口规模与人均耕地面积关联度较低；市区人口要素与水资源(用水总量)的曲线拟合优度高,两者之间关联耦合作用强。在系统层面,三大地级市人口规模与资源环境状态、资源环境污染及资源环境消耗的拟合结果表明：人口规模与资源环境状态的关联耦合作用较弱,远没有资源环境消耗及污染的拟合优度高,关联作用强。其中,三大地级市资源环境污染随人口规模的变化一致性升高；但在资源环境消耗方面,却出现了明显的空间差异性。在协同演化过程方面,银川平原城镇区域人口—环境系统协调度总体发展势头较好,基本处于协同阶段,但在近年有小幅下降趋势。同时,三个地级市协调度具有明显的空间分异特征,银川市最高；其次为石嘴山市,但增长速度快；相较其他两市,吴忠市协调度波动下降。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the urbanization process , the number and scale of small cities and towns are rapidly developing , and the population is concentrated in the urban areas . As the natural and socio - economic conditions of the whole area of Ningxia , the urban area of Yinchuan Plain has the comparative advantage , the resources development intensity is large , the scale of the population expands rapidly ;
At the same time , in the 12th Five - Year Plan for Ecological Migration in Ningxia , it is necessary to relocate some 346,000 people in the southern mountain area to the north - central area . The urban areas of the future Yinchuan Plain are faced with huge population gathering pressure . The urban area of Yinchuan Plain is based on the oasis environment . Due to the fragility and unstable characteristics of the oasis natural system itself , the regional development of the urban area of Yinchuan Plain is more sensitive to the response of the environment system . Based on this , the paper analyzes the process and characteristics of the spatial and temporal fluctuation of the urban area population , the environment resources ( land resources , water resources ) .
Based on the relationship between population size and environment resource status , environment resource consumption , environmental resource pollution and environmental resource protection , the paper quantitatively analyzes the coordinated development of urban regional population - environment system in the plain and urban areas .
From the three aspects of cultivated land resources , water resources and economic resources , the comprehensive bearing capacity of the urban area of Yinchuan Plain relative to the whole area of Ningxia is calculated , which provides a reference for the future optimization of population space layout and sustainable development in Ningxia , and concludes that :

( 1 ) From the viewpoint of space scale , under the driving of administrative , economic and resource factors , the population size , population density and growth rate of three major cities ( Yinchuan City , Shizuishan City , Wuzhong City ) are obviously higher than that of other five counties . The population spatial distribution structure is in agreement with the urban scale structure in the urban areas of Yinchuan Plain .

( 2 ) In the area of land resources , the construction land in the urban areas of the Yinchuan Plain increased rapidly , especially the rapid expansion of the urban construction land , which resulted in a significant reduction in the per capita arable land area ;
Seen from the whole Yinchuan Plain town area , because of the rapid expansion of the population size , the unexploited amount of development is large ;
At the same time , the urban area still faces serious problems of land desertification and salination in the urban area of Yinchuan Plain . In the aspect of water resources , the precipitation of regional precipitation in the urban area of Yinchuan Plain is in decline due to the influence of global climate ;
In recent years , the amount of water in the Yellow River has been reduced , and the water consumption of Ningxia Yellow River is restricted by the applied state , and the underground water depth is increased . In view of the consumption and pollution of resources and environment , the level of environmental pollution in the urban area of Yinchuan Plain is on the rising trend ;
However , in terms of resource consumption , especially water resource consumption , the spatial difference is obvious , in which the level of resource consumption in Yinchuan city rises , the consumption level of Shizuishan and Wu Zhongshi is declining trend .

( 3 ) At the system element level , the urban population size is related to the area of urban construction area and the per capita arable land area , but the population size of 5 counties and the per capita arable land area are relatively low ;
The relationship between population size and resource environment status , resource environmental pollution and resource environmental consumption show that the relationship between population size and resource environment status , resource environment pollution and resource environment consumption is weak , and the relationship between population size and resource environment state is high and the correlation function is strong .
However , in the aspect of resource environment consumption , there are obvious spatial differences . In the process of co - evolution , the overall development momentum of regional population - environmental system coordination in the urban area of Yinchuan Plain is relatively good , basically in the collaborative phase , but in recent years there is a small decline trend . At the same time , the coordination degree of the three prefecture - level cities has obvious spatial differentiation characteristics , and the city is the highest ;
The second is Shizuishan City , but the growth rate is fast ;
In comparison to the other two cities , Wu Zhongshi ' s degree of coordination has fallen .

【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】