中国高等教育年龄人口总量、结构及变动趋势

发布时间：2018-04-13 09:51

本文选题：学龄人口 + 生育政策　；参考：《人口与经济》2017年06期

【摘要】：以1982年以来的人口普查数据为基础,以年龄别受教育模式、平均受教育年限和预期受教育年限为主要测量方法,分析中国高等教育人口总量、结构和存在的主要问题。通过递进人口预测模型,预测中国高等教育年龄人口总量、结构和变动趋势。研究认为中国高等教育年龄人口总量进入下降阶段。各年龄队列之间人口规模从差距巨大,向差距显著缩小转变。预计今后高等教育年龄人口规模将持续稳定下降,人口规模从2015年的12849.16万人下降到2035年的9114.74万人,比2015年减少3700多万人,下降幅度接近1/3。未来的高等教育年龄人口在校规模具有很强的不确定性。预计2020年之前高等教育年龄人口在校规模处于下降趋势,2015年至2020年保持在3000万—4000万之间。
[Abstract]:Based on the census data since 1982, this paper analyzes the total population, structure and main problems of higher education in China, based on the age-specific education model, the average education years and the expected education years.Based on the progressive population prediction model, this paper predicts the total population, structure and changing trend of the age population of higher education in China.The study believes that the total age population of higher education in China has entered a stage of decline.The population size of different age cohorts changed from a large gap to a significant narrowing of the gap.The size of the population of higher education age is expected to continue to decline steadily, from 128.4916 million in 2015 to 91.1474 million in 2035, a decline of more than 37 million compared with 2015, or nearly a third of the decline.There is a strong uncertainty about the size of the population of higher education age in the future.The number of people of higher education age is expected to decline until 2020, and will remain between 30 million and 40 million between 2015 and 2020.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用”(16ZDA090)
【分类号】：C924.2

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