基于GIS与多智能的北京市人口分布预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 07:28

本文选题：智能体 + 地理信息系统　；参考：《首都师范大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的快速发展,中国进入了人口城市化的快速发展阶段,伴随城市增长也导致了多种社会和环境问题,如大气污染,交通拥堵,绿地弱化。城市政府部在制定城市规划过程中充分的考虑到上述问题,使用了大量的方法来解决城市增长而带来的消极影响,其中GIS方法是最常用的解决方法之一,但是GIS方法在解决城市人口发展的时间过程中存在一定的劣势,因而不能有效的预测未来人口分布。 GIS数据模型核心主要在于空间性,因此GIS工具只能有限的处理时间过程问题。城市多智能体方法是从城市内部的微观变动结合城市环境,来反映宏观的城市人口分布变化,多智能体方法在处理时间过程问题中存在很大的优势。本文选择C#编程,集成多智能体平台Repast,并对具体的智能体的属性进行详细的设定,同时还提出了智能体与GIS进行集成的方案,并最终通过shapefile文件中间件的形式与Repast进行了集成开发。在研究中,以Repast为工具构建一系列的独立智能体,他们通过离散事件在以绿地、交通、房价、学校为背景的环境中进行信息交互,模拟客观世界中的城市演化过程。本文首先阐述了人口迁移建模,研究背景,国内外进展以及相关理论支撑,并提出运用多智能体系统与GIS进行集成的建模思路,然后提出建立人口迁移时空模型的核心基础：人口迁移的时空信息机理,对时空信息机理的阐述主要是根据北京市的实际情况,然后以2008年的数据为主要依据,然后根据时空信息机理提出模型设计思路以及部分实现方法,通过模型对北京市2010年的北京市人口数据进行预测,并将预测结果北京市实际统计数据进行比较,从而对模型精度进行检验,检验结果表明模型精度为93%。最后对北京市2015年的人口数据进行预测,并根据智能体的决策行为,分析了智能体对北京市中小学校数量及学校分布的影响。研究结果表明,北京2015年的城市人口分布更加具有规律性,人口集中在四环到五环之间,虽然城市人口数量依然保持持续增长的模式,但是增长速度明显减缓。城市的发展方向呈现多中心聚集和周边环状分布两个发展方向。政府通过交通线路的铺设以及绿化带的规划建设等控制手段,克服了城市的无序扩张和中心衰退,既降低了市中心的人口密度,又防止了城市空心化的发生,说明政府的宏观调控已经起到了一定的作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, China has entered the stage of rapid development of population urbanization, accompanied by urban growth has also led to a variety of social and environmental problems, such as air pollution, traffic congestion, the weakening of green space.The Ministry of Urban Government has taken these problems into full consideration in the process of formulating urban planning, and has used a large number of methods to solve the negative effects of urban growth, among which the GIS method is one of the most commonly used solutions.However, the GIS method has some disadvantages in solving the time course of urban population development, so it can not effectively predict the future population distribution.The core of GIS data model is mainly spatial, so GIS tools can only deal with time process problem.The urban multi-agent method reflects the macro urban population distribution from the microcosmic changes within the city and the urban environment. The multi-agent method has a great advantage in dealing with the time process problem.This paper chooses C # programming, integrates the multi-agent platform Repast. and sets the properties of the specific agent in detail. At the same time, it puts forward the scheme of the integration of the agent and GIS.And finally through the form of shapefile file middleware and Repast integration development.In the study, a series of independent agents are constructed by using Repast as a tool. They interact with each other through discrete events in the context of green space, traffic, house prices and schools, and simulate the urban evolution process in the objective world.In this paper, the modeling of population migration, the research background, the progress at home and abroad and the related theories are introduced, and the idea of integrating multi-agent system with GIS is put forward in this paper.Then it puts forward the core foundation of establishing the spatio-temporal model of population migration: the spatio-temporal information mechanism of population migration. The expounding of spatio-temporal information mechanism is mainly based on the actual situation in Beijing, and then on the basis of the 2008 data.Then, according to the mechanism of space-time information, the paper puts forward the model design idea and some realization methods, forecasts the population data of Beijing in 2010 through the model, and compares the actual statistical data of Beijing with the forecast results.The accuracy of the model is tested and the result shows that the precision of the model is 933.Finally, the population data of Beijing in 2015 are predicted, and the influence of agent on the number and distribution of primary and secondary schools in Beijing is analyzed according to the decision-making behavior of agents.The results show that the urban population distribution in Beijing in 2015 is more regular, the population is concentrated between the four rings and five rings, although the urban population still keeps the pattern of sustained growth, but the growth rate is obviously slower.The development direction of the city presents two development directions: polycentric agglomeration and circumjacent annular distribution.The government has overcome the city's disorderly expansion and central decline by laying traffic lines and planning and building green belts, reducing the population density of the city center and preventing the city from becoming hollow.Show that the government's macro-control has played a certain role.
【学位授予单位】：首都师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C922

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