山东省人口老龄化对消费水平和消费结构影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 04:12

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 消费水平　；参考：《辽宁大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济发展水平的不断上升,新生儿出生率和居民死亡率的大大降低,人口老龄化的进程正在不断加快,人口老龄化将是人类社会的必经阶段。全国第五次人口普查数据显示,我国早在1999年就步入了人口老龄化社会。而山东省进入老龄化的时间是1995年,比全国还早四年。截至2014年底,山东省65岁及以上人口总数与15-64岁人口总数的比重为16.1%,这一比例高于全国水平,老龄化程度的不断加快必将给山东省经济的发展带来深刻影响。研究表明,山东省人口老龄化的特点集中体现为增长速度快、城乡之间以及地区之间差异明显、“空巢现象”日趋严重等。而老年人口的消费观念、消费能力和需求与青壮年及少儿群体相比有着很大的差别。因此老年人口占总人口比重的上升必然会给山东省居民整体的消费水平和消费结构的转变带来很大影响。文章的第一部分是绪论。绪论部分主要包括文章的选题背景和研究意义、国内外研究现状、研究的思路和方法、论文的主要内容和框架、以及创新点和不足。第一章主要阐述基本概念和理论依据。首先解释一些相关的概念：人口老龄化、消费水平、消费结构；其次,对于本文研究中要用到的与消费相关的理论给予简单介绍,主要包括凯恩斯绝对收入假说、杜森贝利的相对收入假说、弗里德曼的持久收入理论、莫迪利安尼的生命周期理论。第二章是山东省人口老龄化的现状、特点和山东省居民消费水平和结构分析。根据山东省2001—2014年的老龄人口数量和老龄人口比重、历次人口普查山东省总人口与老年人口增长比较、2010年山东省各地级市人口年龄构成等数据进行总结分析,再针对14年间的变化总结出：人口老龄化具有速度快、地区之间差异明显、城乡之间差异显著、“空巢老人”数量显著增加等特征。首先,利用2000-2014年15年间的的统计数据,分析山东省城镇和农村居民人均消费水平的变动,然后根据2005-2014年城镇、农村居民人均全年八大类消费品支出的统计数据,计算出每一类消费支出在总支出中所占的比重,进而分析山东省城镇和农村居民的消费结构的特点。第三章：主要采用实证的方法,来研究山东省消费水平在人口老龄化背景下所发生的变动。这一部分主要包括模型的简介、对于数据出处的说明、检验消费函数模型,当然这一模型是包含人口年龄结构变量的。此外还对另外一个消费函数模型进行了检验,这个模型是含有标准消费人消费水平的,最后对结果进行分析总结。第四章：主要采用实证的方法,来研究山东省居民消费结构在人口老龄化背景下所发生的变动。研究人口老龄化对于消费支出的影响,这一研究过程采用的是灰色关联度的方法。研究山东省在2005年至2014年间65岁及以上的老龄人与八大类消费品支出的关联度的大小,进而分析前者对后者需求程度影响的大小。第五章：结论与对策。主要从提高老年群体的消费水平、优化老年人口消费结构、减缓居民老龄化程度三个角度来分析。
[Abstract]:With the increasing level of economic development, the birth rate and mortality rate of the newborns are greatly reduced, the process of population aging is accelerating, and the aging of the population will be the required stage of human society. The fifth national census data shows that China entered the aging society as early as 1999. And the Shandong Province has entered the old age. The age of age is 1995, four years earlier than the whole country. By the end of 2014, the proportion of the total population of 65 years old and above and the total population of 15-64 years old in Shandong province is 16.1%. This proportion is higher than the national level. The continuous acceleration of the degree of aging will have a profound influence on the economic development of Shandong province. The research shows that the aging of population in Shandong province is special. The point concentration is embodied in the rapid growth rate, the obvious difference between the urban and rural areas and between the regions, and the increasingly serious "empty nest" phenomenon. The consumption concept, consumption ability and demand of the elderly population are very different from those of young and young adults. Therefore, the increase of the proportion of the elderly population to the total population of the population is bound to be the whole of the residents in Shandong province. The first part of the article is the introduction. The introduction part mainly includes the background and significance of the topic, the current research status at home and abroad, the thinking and method of research, the main content and framework of the paper, and the innovation and lack. The first chapter mainly expounds the basic concepts and theoretical basis. First, explain some related concepts: population aging, consumption level, consumption structure; secondly, give a brief introduction to the consumption related theories used in this study, including Keynes absolute income hypothesis, Duson Bailey's relative income hypothesis, Freedman's persistent income theory, Modigliani's life week. The second chapter is the status of population aging in Shandong Province, characteristics and analysis of the consumption level and structure of residents in Shandong province. According to the population and the proportion of the aged population from 2001 to 2014 in Shandong Province, the total population of Shandong province is compared with the growth of the aged population in Shandong Province, and the population age composition of the local cities of Shandong Province in 2010, and so on. By summarizing and analyzing the changes in 14 years, it is concluded that the population aging has a fast speed, obvious differences between regions, significant differences between urban and rural areas and a significant increase in the number of "empty nest elderly". First, the changes in the per capita consumption level of urban and rural residents in Shandong province are analyzed by the statistical data of 2000-2014 years and 15 years. Then, according to the statistical data of the expenditure of eight kinds of consumer goods per capita per capita of rural residents in 2005-2014 years, the proportion of each kind of consumption expenditure in the total expenditure is calculated, and then the characteristics of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in Shandong province are analyzed. The third chapter is mainly to use the empirical method to study the consumption level in Shandong province. This part mainly includes the introduction of the model, the explanation of the data source, the test of the consumption function model, of course, which includes the population age structure variables. In addition, another consumption function model is tested, which contains standard consumer consumption level. In the fourth chapter, the fourth chapter mainly adopts an empirical method to study the changes in the consumption structure of residents in the background of population aging. The study of the effect of population aging on consumption expenditure is based on the method of grey connection degree in this study. The study of Shandong province from 2005 to 2014. The size of the aged people aged 65 and over with the expenditure of the eight categories of consumer goods, and then analysis the size of the former on the demand for the latter. The fifth chapter: conclusions and countermeasures, mainly from the three angles of improving the consumption level of the elderly, optimizing the structure of the elderly population and slowing down the aging degree of the residents.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.24;F126

【参考文献】