中国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果

发布时间：2018-05-05 14:15

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 出生率　；参考：《人口与经济》2017年02期

【摘要】：快速老龄化对我国经济产生广泛的影响,我国也先后实施"单独二孩"和"全面二孩"政策,以提高出生率来应对人口快速老龄化问题。然而,已有研究主要是基于过去人口变化的特征事实作出的,而我国在老龄化冲击下调整计划生育政策,将会改变人口原有的变化趋势,这是已有研究没有遇到过的新情况。本文以"全面二孩"政策的实施为契机,使用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)分析了我国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果,研究发现提高出生率总体上有利于应对人口老龄化对经济的冲击,但也会付出物价上涨、经济波动增加及社会福利下降的代价。在以上结论基础上,本文做了进一步的探讨。
[Abstract]:Rapid aging has a wide impact on our economy, and China has implemented the policy of "single two-child" and "all-around two-child" in order to raise the birth rate to cope with the problem of rapid aging of the population. However, the existing research is mainly based on the characteristics of population change in the past, and the adjustment of family planning policy under the impact of aging in China will change the original trend of population change, which is a new situation that has not been encountered in previous studies. Taking the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy as a turning point and using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), this paper analyzes the economic effects of birth rate changes under the impact of aging population in China. The study found that higher birth rates generally help cope with the economic impact of an ageing population, but also pay the price of rising prices, rising economic volatility and declining social welfare. On the basis of the above conclusions, this paper makes a further discussion.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“江浙沪现代经济发展模式比较分析”(14JJD790016) 山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目“新常态下山西经济增长的减速治理——动力结构调整视角”(2016236)
【分类号】：C924.24;F124

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