增城市市民生育意愿实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 03:07

本文选题：生育意愿 + 增城市　；参考：《华南理工大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口控制是实现可持续发展是核心问题。本研究从一个新的系统工程视角,通过对增城市市民的生育意愿调查,运用社会学、人口学、经济学的相关理论和方法,探讨增城市市民的生育意愿现状,分析其影响因素,并提出有效统筹解决人口问题的政策建议。从而引导群众优化生育意愿,科学生育,实现人口资源的科学发展。全文共分为六部分:第一部分阐述选题的现实及理论意义,明确文章的研究思路和方法。第二部分对课题研究的几个关键概念——生育意愿、生育观、生育文化、低生育水平、更替水平、总和生育率、出生人口性别比、人口老龄化、人口抚养比、人口再生产、人口再生产惯性、人口金字塔、人口红利、我国的三次出生人口高峰等进行界定,明确概念的内涵与外延;同时了解生育意愿对人口控制政策的作用和国外人口控制领域对生育意愿的运用;以便于论文的进一步开展。第三部分对增城市市民生育意愿的调查。首先通过目前对生育意愿的研究维度、因素设计生育意愿调查问卷,在全市范围内向不同层次的群体进行问卷调查,进而分析出生育意愿现状及与其相关的因素。第四部分分析出增城市市民生育意愿现状和形成原因。第五部分从生育意愿调查讨论增城市未来人口发展趋势。采用增城市第五次人口普查数据为基数分别按现行政策(1.5孩)和采取问卷综合后得出生育意愿平均数(1.88孩)利用CPPS2008人口预测软件预测增城市未来40年人口状况。第六部分通过对市民生育意愿现状、形成原因及未来人口态势进行预测的基础上提出统筹解决人口问题的结论与建议。应该制定科学的社会发展纲要和人口控制目标,同时了解群众的生育意愿,根据生育意愿的成因,采取有效措施,引导群众优化生育意愿,自觉地达到增长人口和减少人口的目的,这比强制措施更好、更让人接受、更有效,从而实现人口资源的科学发展。
[Abstract]:Population control is the core problem to realize sustainable development. From a new system engineering point of view, through the investigation of Zengcheng citizens' fertility intention, using the relevant theories and methods of sociology, demography and economics, the present situation of Zengcheng citizens' fertility will be discussed, and the influencing factors are analyzed. And put forward effective overall solution to the population problem policy recommendations. Thus guiding the masses to optimize fertility will, scientific fertility, to achieve the scientific development of population resources. The thesis is divided into six parts: the first part expounds the practical and theoretical significance of the topic, and clarifies the research ideas and methods. In the second part, the key concepts of the research are fertility intention, fertility view, fertility culture, low fertility level, replacement level, total fertility rate, sex ratio of birth population, population aging, population dependency ratio, population reproduction. The inertia of population reproduction, the pyramid of population, the dividend of population, the peak of the population of three births in our country are defined, and the connotation and extension of the concept are clarified. At the same time, we understand the effect of fertility intention on population control policy and the application of fertility intention in the field of population control in foreign countries, so as to facilitate the further development of the paper. The third part of the Zengcheng City, the survey of the desire for fertility. First of all, through the current research dimension of fertility intention, factors design fertility intention questionnaire, in the whole city to different levels of groups questionnaire survey, and then analyze the status quo of fertility will and related factors. The fourth part analyzes the present situation and reasons of Zengcheng city's fertility intention. The fifth part discusses the future population development trend of Zengcheng city from fertility intention investigation. Using the fifth census data of Zengcheng city as the base, according to the current policy, respectively, and adopting the questionnaire to get the average of 1.88 children.) using CPPS2008 population forecast software to predict the population situation of Zengcheng city in the next 40 years. In the sixth part, the author puts forward the conclusion and suggestion of solving the population problem on the basis of forecasting the present situation, the cause and the future population situation of the citizen's fertility intention. We should formulate a scientific outline for social development and population control goals, and at the same time understand the fertility wishes of the masses, and take effective measures to guide the masses to optimize their fertility intentions according to the causes of their fertility wishes. It is better, more acceptable and more effective to achieve the goal of population growth and population reduction than coercive measures, so as to realize the scientific development of population resources.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.21

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