甘肃省人口流动与城镇化关系模式及其影响的研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 09:20

本文选题：甘肃省 + 人口流动　；参考：《兰州大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国改革开放、政治体制改革深入以及社会经济的快速发展,流动人口的规模日益增大。城乡间及地区间社会经济发展差异推动人口流动,大规模的人口流动和人口再分配是城镇化过程中必然结果。在我国,人口流动方向是以农村流向城镇为主,乡一城人口流动对城镇化水平提高起着非常重要的作用。人口流动一方面协调城乡及地区间的发展,促进城镇化发展,另一方面城镇化过程中,大规模人口流动也带来一系列问题。因此,深入研究甘肃省人口流动及城镇化发展具有很大现实意义。本文通过收集整理与甘肃省流动人口相关的数据及文献,对流动人口概念及相关数据统计口径进行界定,全面分析甘肃省人口流动现状及特点；在分析甘肃省城镇化发展历程及城镇化发展不平衡性基础上,利用CPPS人口预测软件对20]0-2050年甘肃省封闭下(只有人口自然增长)及人口流动情况下城镇化预测；文章利用聚类分析方法,讨论甘肃省人口流动与城镇化关系模式,并继续讨论流动人口对城镇化的影响,在此基础上总结了城镇化过程中出现的与流动人口相关的社会问题并给出相应的建议。本文得出的主要认识和结论如下：(1)甘肃省流动人口现状和主要特征：流动人口总规模增长速度较快,但其规模占全国流动人口比重仍较小；流动人口以省内流动为主,省际净流出状态；流动人口主要分布在周围省份和少数经济发达省区；流动距离以近、中距离为主；流动原因以经济性动机为主(务工经商、学习培训),而婚姻嫁娶、投亲靠友等社会性动机比重越来越少；流出人口家庭的生活水平略低于流入人口的家庭生活水平；每一个流出人口与流入人口携带家属分别为0.6285、0.7644,流动人口生育情况来看,2009-2010年期间跨省流入比省内流入妇女生育二孩及以上的比重低。(2)甘肃省城镇化发展水平较低,与西北地区四省(新疆、宁夏、青海、陕西)及全国平均水平都有一定差距,增长速度低于全国城镇化平均速度；区域内城镇化发展不平衡,相对总人口的城镇化不平衡指数较大,相对于建成区面积和非农业就业人员的城镇化不平衡指数较小。分别假设在封闭条件(只考虑出生和死亡情况)和人口流动情况下,来预测2010-2050年甘肃省城镇化变化趋势,发现在封闭情况下甘肃省城镇化水平逐年降低,而后者则相反,即人口流动对城镇化提高具有很大的影响。(3)从全国范围看,甘肃省流动人口与城镇化模式属于较为封闭性的本地自发性城镇化模式。这种模式下人口流动性较弱,经济发展缺乏活力,因此需要通过调整产业结构,促进自身发展,鼓励人口流动。(4)通过定量分析得出甘肃省人口流动对城镇化进程影响程度。甘肃省流动人口占总人口的比重每提高一个百分点,甘肃省城市化水平就可以提高6.208(5)研究发现,城镇化发展过程中流动人口问题具有普遍性、长期性和复杂性,甘肃省流动人口分布集中、住房问题、社会保障制度、流动人口融合等问题都亟待解决,在综合分析问题的基础上,笔者提出了相应的解决措施。
[Abstract]:With the reform and opening up, the deepening of the political system reform and the rapid development of the social economy, the scale of the floating population is increasing. The difference of the social and economic development between urban and rural areas and the regional social and economic development promotes the population flow. The large-scale population flow and the redistribution of the population are the inevitable result in the process of urbanization. In China, the direction of population flow is in the countryside. The flow of population to cities and towns plays a very important role in improving the level of urbanization. On the one hand, population flow coordinates the development of urban and rural areas and regions, and promotes the development of urbanization. On the other hand, in the process of urbanization, large-scale population flow also brings a series of problems. Therefore, the study of population flow and urbanization in Gansu province is deeply studied. The development has great practical significance. Through collecting and sorting out the data and literature related to the floating population in Gansu Province, this paper defines the concept of floating population and the statistical caliber of relevant data, comprehensively analyzes the current situation and characteristics of the population flow in Gansu Province, and analyzes the development process of urbanization in Gansu and the imbalance of urbanization development. The CPPS population forecast software is used to predict urbanization in Gansu province (only natural population growth) and population flow in 20]0-2050. The paper uses cluster analysis to discuss the relationship between population flow and urbanization in Gansu Province, and continues to discuss the influence of floating population on urbanization. On this basis, the process of urbanization is summarized. The main understanding and conclusions are as follows: (1) the current situation and main characteristics of the floating population in Gansu Province: the total size of the floating population is growing faster, but the proportion of the floating population is still small; the floating population is mainly in the province and the province is interprovincial. The flow population is mainly distributed in the surrounding provinces and a few economically developed provinces; the flow distance is close to the middle distance; the reasons for the flow are mainly economic motivation (doing business, learning and training), while the proportion of social motives, such as marriage, marriage and relatives, is less, and the living standard of the outflow family is slightly lower than that of the family. The living standard of the population inflows into the family; each outflow population and the influx of the population are 0.6285,0.7644, respectively. In the 2009-2010 year period, the proportion of cross provincial inflow to two children and above is lower than that in the province. (2) the level of urbanization in Gansu is low, and the four provinces in Northwest China (Xinjiang, Ningxia,) Qinghai, Shaanxi) and the national average level have a certain gap, the growth rate is lower than the national average speed of urbanization; the urbanization development in the region is not balanced, the relative total population's urbanization unbalance index is larger, compared with the built-up area and the non agricultural employment personnel, the urbanization unbalance index is smaller. Considering the situation of birth and death) and population flow, the trend of urbanization in Gansu province is predicted for 2010-2050 years. It is found that the urbanization level of Gansu province is decreasing year by year in the closed situation, and the latter is the opposite, that is, the population flow has a great influence on the urbanization. (3) from the national perspective, the floating population and the urbanization model of Gansu Province This model belongs to the more closed local spontaneous urbanization mode. Under this model, the population mobility is weak and the economic development is lack of vitality. Therefore, it needs to adjust the industrial structure, promote its own development and encourage the population flow. (4) through quantitative analysis, the influence of the population flow on the urbanization process in Gansu province. The floating population in Gansu province accounts for the population flow. As the proportion of the total population is increased by one percentage point, the urbanization level in Gansu province can be raised by 6.208 (5) research. It is found that the problem of floating population in the process of urbanization is universal, long-term and complex, the distribution of floating population in Gansu province is concentrated, housing problems, social protection system and floating population integration are all urgent to be solved, in a comprehensive way. On the basis of combining analysis, the author puts forward corresponding solutions.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】